The results from the Spanish election of 2023 make it an interesting case study. All indicators point at a probable hung parliament in Madrid as Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his supporters celebrated the right-wing, People’s Party's inability to secure a majority in the parliament. The truth, however, is that the People’s Party won the most seats by campaigning on a platform that promoted anti-immigrant, populist, and conservative rhetoric aimed at alienating Sanchez from the Spanish electorate. Much of the rhetoric from the PP mirrors that of the current Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni while she was campaigning from her Brothers of Italy party platform. In light of this, Spain’s uncertain future and possible proclivity towards the right could be a bad omen for Europe.  

The results are up for an array of different interpretations. As more than 90% of the votes were initially counted, the conservatives were clearly in the lead with 136 out of 350 seats secured. This is short of an absolute majority to form a government by 40 seats, however, in comparison to the leftists, Alberto Nunez Feijoo’s party is ahead with 16 seats. Additionally, this election provided more space for the far-right to assert their presence amid voter preferences towards the left and right. The far-right Vox party with its overtly racist, fascist, and authoritarian orientation grabbed a notable 33 seats despite its notoriety for policies that are at odds with liberal democracy, constructivism, and progressive ideals. This combination in the Spanish parliament with no clear front runner indicates that Madrid could well and truly be descending towards the right as has been the case in Italy and Finland. 

Hence, while Pedro Sanchez and his cohort can celebrate the apparent inability of the right to make inroads and impose what is considered a ‘backward agenda’ that nullifies the progress that Spain has made economically, the situation is far more convoluted with media forecasts also indicating that Sanchez could well and truly be ousted from office. The only question is whether Vox and the PP could possibly unite and form a coalition government with other regional parties. Recent experience of both the far-right and the right in Spain is manifested in dozens of regions and cities across the country during the local elections in May 2023. 

Such propositions are also vexed. If one examines voter preferences in the elections both the center-right and the center-left parties have been backed by the Spanish public but neither has received a clear mandate to either form the government or lead the country. This evidently indicates that the country faces lengthy and potentially tantalizing coalition talks with the possibility of a new vote also on the cards, particularly if no majority is found. The trouble for Spain however, is that evident right-wing gains would also be predicated upon shortcomings from the Socialist Worker’s Party as has been the case in countries such as Finland and Italy. Disenchantment with the status quo and widespread populist appeal is what prompted figures such as Meloni and Petteri Orpo to assume power.  

Would Spain venture into that direction is anyone’s guess. According to a professor at the prestigious Northeastern University in Boston, Massachusetts Calderon Martinez, the election results have revealed a divided Spain and while the Socialist camp would be the happier of the two parties contesting, it is a foregone conclusion that the PP turned out to be the largest party in the Spanish Congress. According to Martinez, the far-right Vox successfully managed to make this election less about the Spanish economy and more about ‘cultural wars’ and social issues. Additionally, the high turnout in Spain as compared to Italy where the latter registered the lowest voter participation since the birth of the Italian republic after the Second World War also shows the polarization of Spanish society which is both widespread and glaring.  

The question remains-Does this translate into gains for the far-right in Spain and should those vouching for progressive ideals in Europe be concerned? The answer is a cautious yes.  While undoubtedly true that the situation in Spain does not mirror the Meloni effect in Rome 2022, far-right demagoguery is in the ascendancy in Madrid despite Sanchez being named as caretaker Prime Minister. If the PP manages to secure votes from regionalist parties (which seems unlikely given the toxic relationship between authoritarianism and secessionism), there could also be a surprise scenario in store. That scenario entails a government with or without Sanchez, facing stiff opposition or flak from a party that has successfully revived the language on the Spanish Civil War, polarized the discourse as a battle between former military dictator Francisco Franco and what the conservatives deem as ‘ Red Terror,’ remains a possibility. Such appeals set a dangerous precedent and would continue to jolt Spain’s smooth democratic transition. Such discourses also mirror the rhetoric that Giorgia Meloni employed alongside the far-right leader, Matteo Salvini when looking to discredit the center-left coalition in Italy which consists of the Democratic Party and the Greens and Left Alliance. 

It would be unfortunate if Spain became the latest country in Europe to fall to ultra-populism, hyper-nationalism, and authoritarianism. It is important for Madrid to navigate through the difficult situation by upholding democratic ideals instead of divisiveness. The results from the 2023 elections make it clear that Madrid continuing Europe’s ascendancy to the right remains a possibility.