In the late spring of 2023, Kiev and its allies actually managed to convince the European public and the people of Ukraine that the new Ukrainian offensive against Russian troops would be a success. Daily reports on the supply of equipment by NATO countries for the Ukrainian army, the training of more and more units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at European bases, and the supply of modern missile systems to Kiev made many people believe that before summer the Ukrainian army would be able to prevail over the Russians. Even in Russia, panicked voices could be heard claiming that by mid-summer the “land corridor to the Crimea” would come under threat.

Despite the fact that the initial three-week Ukrainian advance in the Zaporozhye region failed to meet expectations, the strange actions by the Wagner private military company on June 24-25 added optimism to Zelensky’s team and his Western allies. This was perceived by Ukraine’s political and military leadership as a sign of the collapse of the Russian army and the start of conflicts within the Russian military leadership, encouraging them to step up the onslaught. However, after almost two months of this "offensive," it is obvious that the Ukrainian army has fallen into a trap carefully set up for it by the Russian General Staff. According to the most optimistic estimates, by early August 2023, Ukraine had lost up to half of the troops trained by Western instructors (25,000 out of 50,000), and a huge number of armored vehicles. Moreover, the Ukrainian forces had failed to occupy a single major settlement, let alone to break through the Russian defenses. Meanwhile, the Russian army began to advance toward Kharkov, and the new Ukrainian missile strikes on the infrastructure facilities in Crimea and the Crimean bridge gave Moscow an excellent reason to pull out from the grain deal that was only lossmaking to Russia. 

With Zelensky unable to say that the offensive had fallen through and that his army was unable to break through the Russian defense lines, Kiev and its partners are forced to report more and more "stages" of the offensive, carrying out suicidal attacks on Russian positions. Why so? Very obviously, due to the flexibility of the Russian military leadership and its ability to change the tactics of military operations much faster than its Ukrainian counterparts. Despite all the sense of dissatisfaction felt by Russian patriotic circles, since the fall of 2022, the Russian army, having ceased all offensive operations, except in Bakhmut, has consistently been building defense lines, improving the interaction of its military branches, and stepping up the production of drones. As a result, the biggest Ukrainian losses come from deadly artillery fire, extensive mining, as well as air force and drone strikes. At the same time, the morale of the Russian army remains high and keeps going up, boosted by significant and real successes on the battlefield. Suffice it to mention the recent destruction within a few minutes of a column of eight Ukrainian armed vehicles by a single Russian tank in a real feat captured on numerous videos. This is just one example of the excellent training of the Russian troops and their good intelligence. Ukrainian propaganda is unable to come up with anything that comes even close to this. Ukrainian military publics and telegram channels mainly show Western missile systems firing in an unknown direction, brag about them and thank Western partners, without specifying the real combat effectiveness of these “gifts.”

The secret of Russian military success stems from Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s ability to take into account the Ukrainians’ self-instilled overconfidence boosted by colossal military assistance provided by the West. Moreover, he managed to convince the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the Russian soldiers’ vulnerability. Meanwhile, the Russian military succeeded in hiding from the Ukrainians its gargantuan work done during a pause in hostilities to improve combat coordination and strengthen intelligence and electronic warfare. At the same time, Kiev, which is so proud of its “network” of saboteurs recruited via telegram channels, failed to dig up any information about the huge growth of the Russian military-industrial complex, the Russian minefields and defense lines, as well as the training of troops on the front line. As a result, each day of suicidal Ukrainian attacks is adding to the popularity of the army, Defense Minister Shoigu, and the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov within Russian society. So, the “effective drone raids on Moscow” leading to the replacement of glass in the Moscow City towers only irritate the Russians, who demand more strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.

The failure of the Ukrainian offensive is a slap in the face of NATO and Western intelligence agencies. The 25,000 Ukrainians killed in June and July of 2023, might wonder how come the British, French and US intelligence believed in the military weakness of the Russians and sent them to the slaughter. How did they let Shoigu deceive them? Why, 18 months into the war, the Ukrainian army is unable to ensure adequate troop command and control? 

Just how the massacre of Ukrainian forces in the "Zaporozhye trap" will end is pretty much obvious. At the end of August, Kiev will announce that it has partially fulfilled the goals of the offensive by "weakening the Russian army" and "pushing back the Russian advance in threatened areas." There is no real evidence of this, of course. What has remained of the "assault corps" will be spread along the entire front to strengthen the defense in the areas where the Russians are slowly but steadily advancing. Kiev will wait for a new portion of Western aid and will continue to mobilize – something more and more Ukrainians try to avoid. The only question that remains, is what Shoigu and Gerasimov, who have proved to be able to mislead Ukraine and its allies, will do. Will they strike back, or will they wait for another "counteroffensive," where the Ukrainian army is so effectively destroying itself?!