Will Damascus be willing to pay the price to restore relations with Moscow?
In her analysis, Katia Ibrahim examines Damascus’s delicate balancing act as it seeks to restore ties with Moscow, negotiating debts, military bases, and Western pressure while weighing the political cost of renewed Russian support.
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It is no secret that removing Russia from Syria in preparation for isolating it in Libya and Africa is a Western goal. (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Zeinab el-Hajj)
Although Moscow postponed holding the Russian-Arab summit that was scheduled for October 15, the head of the Syrian Transitional Authority, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, adhered to the date of his visit, which reflected his determination and great desire to hold the first meeting of its kind with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which lasted for more than two and a half hours.
Great momentum and many rumors accompanied this visit.
Media outlets and pro-government activists said that “the visit aims to discuss the possibility of Russia handing over former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is currently a refugee in Russia, and to request assistance in arresting the remnants of the former regime and a pledge not to arm them,” while opponents of the government said that “Al-Sharaa announced to the Russians his non-objection to a federal system on the Syrian coast and pledged to integrate officers and members of the former Syrian army into the new army.”
It is no secret that removing Russia from Syria in preparation for isolating it in Libya and Africa is a Western goal, which was frankly announced by the former German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, at the beginning of this year after her visit to Damascus.
But at a time when Europe accuses Moscow of violating European airspace and launching security attacks, this visit to Russia appears to have disappointed Europeans who believed their goal of distancing Russia from Syria and the Middle East had been achieved.
What did Putin and Al-Sharaa discuss?
The Russians extracted a commitment from al-Sharaa to continue implementing the agreements signed between the two countries, most importantly the maintenance of the two Russian bases in Hmeimim and Tartus. In exchange, according to what a Russian diplomatic source told Al Mayadeen English, "al-Sharaa asked Moscow to supply Damascus with oil, wheat, and weapons."
The same source explained: "As a result of Syria's debts to Russia, Moscow will not be able to provide anything without receiving cash payment. Since Damascus currently lacks the cash, it is expected that the Gulf states will foot the bill. The issue of weapons is a little more complicated. While meetings are ongoing and progressing, Moscow has raised serious concerns about the possibility of these weapons reaching factions cooperating with Kiev. This also requires Damascus to work more quickly to resolve the issue of foreign fighters and jihadists."
“Israel” was also discussed at the meeting, as Al-Sharaa asked Putin to request that the Israelis withdraw their incursion into Syrian territory and resume the deployment of Russian military police patrols in southern Syria, as was the case until December 2024.
In this context, the Russian diplomatic source considered: "It is true that if this is implemented, the situation will return to what it was for the dominant forces: Turkey in the north, the US in al-Tanf and its surrounding areas. However, what is different this time is the greater challenge for Moscow in controlling the situation in the south, after a quasi-autonomous administration was formed in Al-Sweida with Israeli support."
Al-Shara's visit to Moscow also came amid ongoing tensions with the Kurds in Al-Ashrafieh and Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhoods of Aleppo. Turkey continues to press for a solution. Regarding this issue, the Russian diplomatic source said: "The US is taking ownership of this issue, but Syria and Turkey are hoping Moscow will also intervene, as it has a good relationship with the SDF."
Al-Sharaa, who has a problem "requesting an exemption from the Security Council every time he wants to leave Syria" asked Putin to mediate with Beijing to secure its approval of a new US draft resolution that would remove him and a number of transitional authority officials from the UN sanctions list.
As for minorities, particularly the Alawites and Druze, they were an important part of the talks. The Russian diplomatic source predicted that Moscow would play a significant role in this regard in the future, saying, "The Russian role may not be as some imagine, but it will certainly be effective."
Reactions that worry the transitional authority
As important as this visit was for both sides, it apparently did not please many parties, as negative reactions quickly began to appear, first from many of the former factions that have become part of the new army, especially the Chechens, whom Al-Sharaa is said to have pledged to hand over or get rid of. What increases the likelihood of these speculations being true is the security campaign that the authorities launched on the French migrant camp immediately after Al-Sharaa’s return from Moscow.
US Congressman Joe Wilson, a staunch supporter of the transitional authority in Syria, who is in contact with his colleagues to gain their approval for a softened version of the Caesar's Act, wrote on X: "Every effort must be made to remove war criminal Putin's bases from Syria."
It appears that these and other voices are beginning to raise concerns for the authorities, prompting Al-Sheibani, the transitional foreign minister, to declare after his return to Damascus that "there were previously concluded agreements with the Russian side that we will not accept. The current presence can be considered suspended, and it is necessary to determine the form of the Russian presence if it continues."
So the question remains: Will Damascus be willing to pay the price to restore relations with Moscow?
Katia Ibrahim