The past week has been the bringer of bad news for the most ardent supporters of "Israel". First, the International Criminal Court (ICC) announced it would apply for an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu amidst war crimes in Gaza. Second, and most critically, a number of European countries including Ireland, Spain and Norway, announced they would offer full recognition to the state of Palestine, prompting Tel Aviv to recall its ambassadors to the countries. More are expected to follow in the coming weeks.

Even as the US continues to fiercely and unconditionally defend "Israel", the sudden move toward further recognition offers new long-term hope for a "two-state solution." It also affirms that "Israel" has already lost the war for global public opinion amidst Netanyahu’s brutal war on Gaza, and while we should expect them to not easily be deterred from their current path, it nonetheless affirms the emerging reality that "Israel" will face growing political and diplomatic isolation. 

For most of its history, "Israel" has received blanket and unconditional backing from the Western world. Supported by the political and media elite, Tel Aviv has served as an outpost to project Western power and interests into the region, even as it came at the expense of Palestinian land and lives. It is no surprise that this same establishment has fiercely resisted criticism of the state at all costs, increasingly blasting its critics as antisemitic and even going as far as accusing those concerned about it of being led by foreign influences. Indeed, the British Labour Party under Keir Starmer mercilessly purged opponents of Zionism from its ranks, while US politicians vilified university encampment movements that spread throughout the country.

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Yet despite this, Benjamin Netanyahu’s war on the Gaza Strip has been so brutal, so devastating and so objectively inhumane that even the greatest public relations machine in the world could not whitewash the horrors it has manifested. This conflict as such has marked a historical turning point which has, whether America likes it or not, had a permanent and irreversibly negative impact on "Israel’s" global standing and has broken the "unconditionally" in support from Western capitals. Not only do we see powerful countries such as France acknowledging Netanyahu would have to be arrested, but we also see the end of a longstanding political taboo in Western countries now against recognizing Palestine. 

Spain is the first major Western nation to take this position and it will not be the last -- even Britain has not ruled out this possibility. The US-led transatlantic unity on the issue will soon cease to exist. Even in America itself, support for "Israel" outside of the political classes is heavily weighted toward the older generations. Young people are increasingly critical of Zionism. This trend is even more apparent within Europe, which has always been more liberal in its disposition than the United States, backed up by Muslim diaspora populations.

Despite this, we should not expect an immediate change of course from "Israel", even as the grain shifts. For the most ardent Zionists, political ownership of the occupied territories of the West Bank and Gaza is non-negotiable. Attempts to settle and dominate these areas are likely to continue and thus the plight of Palestinians is not over. However, one thing that will be different from before is that beyond America, global tolerance for "Israel" has ultimately run out, and attempting to put a lid on it is a growing political liability, even for Biden himself. "Israel’s" continued occupation of these lands will come at an increased political cost and it will bring upon it growing diplomatic isolation.

As Tel Aviv withdraws ambassadors and believes it is the one to mete out the punishments to European countries, it does so with a lack of self-awareness and hubris not realizing that the Rubicon has already been crossed. Thus, it faces a new and undeniable choice of either making concessions or ultimately becoming the "South Africa of the 21st century." While Netanyahu vowed a war of annihilation against Hamas and believed bringing Gaza under "Israel’s" control would appease the hardliners in his government and improve security, he has arguably done more to weaken "Israel’s" position more than any other leader since "Israel's" establishment.