Over the past week, "Israel" has made it clear it will be pursuing an invasion of the Gaza region of Rafah, irrespective of what the world might think. The city, which is home to over 1 million refugees who have fled Tel Aviv’s relentless campaign of destruction and bombardment, is situated on the border with Egypt. In the buildup to this campaign, the Israel Occupation Forces (IOF) immediately occupied the border and closed it down. 

Irrespective of what happens next in their military campaign, this is already the most significant thing they have done. Why? Because it now means that "Israel" already has total de-facto military and occupational control over Gaza by establishing occupational control of, and closing, every single border point. To this end, the temporary "US-built pier" was constructed, with "Israel's" intention being to shut down every land crossing and only allow goods to enter through maritime passages that it already polices..."Israel’s" military encirclement and embargo of the Gaza strip is therefore comprehensive. 

This new fact on the ground establishes the first part of what Netanyahu has described as the “new security regime” that will govern the Strip after the war, or in other words, formal occupation where there is no way back allowed. Under no circumstances will "Israel" relinquish this military gain, citing security reasons. Even if tomorrow a ceasefire were to occur and an end to all fighting and bombing, "Israel" will insist on maintaining control over the Strip, having made clear that it will no longer accept the original status quo with Hamas. 

Related News

Trump’s Gaza plan: Critics warn of 'colonial blueprint' masquerading as peace

Trump’s Gaza Proposal Isn’t a Peace Plan, It Repackages the War

In analyzing this, we now must look at the long-term, as opposed to the short-term consequences. In maintaining a permanent military occupation over the Gaza strip, illegal under international law, it should be expected that Benjamin Netanyahu, giving in to pressure from hardliners in his government and needing to win support, will adopt the “salami-slicing” approach to occupation, as seen in the occupied West Bank. Salami-slicing refers to a political strategy whereby the status quo is gradually changed through incremental moves, but without overtly acknowledging it to be so. Every time you take one thin slice from the Salami sausage, it looks relatively the same as the previous stage, but over time the slices add up and the salami becomes smaller and smaller.

In the occupied West Bank, Israeli salami-slicing has seen the subtle and incremental displacement of the Palestinian population from their land and the slow advance of settlers, which occurs at a pace so gradual that the world largely ignores it. If a Palestinian is deemed to have committed a crime, his home is demolished and the land is subsequently given to Israeli settlers. Hence, bit by bit in the occupied West Bank, the status quo is shifting under Israeli military control. We should expect Netanyahu to adopt the same model for the Gaza Strip. The population of the land will be slowly displaced and settlers will be reintroduced. This is not hypothetical or speculative, as people are already lining up to do so. As the BBC notes in an article, “Just ask Daniella Weiss, 78, the grandmother of Israel's settler movement, who says she already has a list of 500 families ready to move to Gaza immediately.”

In doing so, the article notes that the settlers and hardliners aim to effectively reverse "Israel’s" 2005 withdrawal, which the piece states was seen as, “a betrayal by the state, and a strategic mistake.” As this happens, the ability of Gazans and Palestinians to resist will be crushed and used as a justification to accelerate the process. When looked at in this light, we can also assume the indiscriminate bombing campaign by "Israel" that has leveled cities in Gaza to rubble was deliberate, precisely because it does not envision a future for Gazans to live there. We should not expect the West to mount serious resistance to this, not least because the process has been occurring in the West Bank for decades. Netanyahu sees this process as integral to his political survival. 

Thus, we are seeing the ultimate end of Gaza as a separate and sovereign political entity. While we can expect brutality, violence, and killing of civilians to continue amid the battle of Rafah, we should not be distracted from the reality that "Israel" is seeking to attain its most important strategic goal, the 100% military blockade of Gaza, thus setting the stage for it to exclusively control its future, and therefore incrementally transform it into an occupied and settled territory.