The crisis unfolding in West Africa, following a coup d'état in Niger last week that toppled the French-backed Mohamed Bazoum government, has the potential to escalate into a global conflict.

The West African organization ECOWAS, which is under the full control of the US and France, has announced that it would attack Niger if the military did not back down and restore Bazoum’s government. The situation gets complicated by the tacit support of the US, France, and the UK, which exhort the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to undertake a military intervention in Niger to overthrow the existing military "dictatorship" led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani.

Reaction from the African nations

The strategies implemented by the European Union and the US in Niger are deemed irresponsible, potentially leading to the emergence of a new global crisis in West Africa, akin to the situations observed in Syria and Ukraine. The aforementioned strategy proved effective in the case of Libya's destruction. However, it is worth noting that Niger currently benefits from substantial backing from other African nations.

In response to the ECOWAS' joint warning to Niger's military junta, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea issued a joint statement declaring that the assault on Niger constitutes an attack on their respective sovereignty, necessitating a robust response. The ECOWAS memberships of the three aforementioned countries were suspended after their respective pro-Russian military commanders seized power.

During the past few years, the military coups in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and now Niger have alarmed the US-UK-France-ECOWAS axis, which is rapidly losing control of the priceless uranium and gold reserves in abjectly impoverished West Africa.

A sizable number of people living in African countries that had recently experienced coups or other forms of power transitions participated in a recent study by the United Nations that involved administering a thorough survey to them. The study's findings, released last month, highlighted significant concerns and issued a warning based on the collected data.

According to the paper, a plausible scenario at the regional level might involve the collaboration of the military juntas in Mali, Guinea, and Burkina Faso. This collaboration aims to challenge the conventional approach of the area toward coup d'états. The statement cautioned that there was a possibility of disregarding sanctions and participating in elections with assistance from "newly formed international coalitions."

According to the report, it is paradoxical that there is popular backing for the recent military coups in Africa. However, this support is seen as indicative of a new surge in democratic aspirations that is spreading throughout the continent. The primary driving force behind this trend is the dissatisfaction of primarily young populations with the current economic and political structures, which has led them to demand quick changes that go beyond what elections can accomplish.

West Africa splits into two blocs

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Lessons in multipolarity from the regions

Dr. Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based geopolitical analyst, told Al Mayadeen English that there are indications that West Africa is on the brink of a regional conflict. This conflict is arising due to the division of the region into two distinct factions, one advocating for an invasion of Niger and the other supporting its defense.

"The recent occurrence of a patriotic military coup in Niger has added a significant dynamic to this situation, potentially altering the course of events," he added.

According to Korybko, the swiftly evolving military and strategic dynamics are laying the groundwork for a potential future proxy conflict in the New Cold War. He added that ECOWAS of Nigeria is leading a military intervention to restore the deposed Niger leader.

"Conversely, Russia is providing support to Burkina Faso and Mali, which have effectively merged into a federation. These two nations have jointly declared that any aggression towards their neighboring country will be considered an act of war against both of them," he maintained.

Korybko stated that the aforementioned parties are engaging in trilateral cooperation with Guinea, a country that is also governed by a military regime. He pointed out that Guinea has recently expressed its support for the Nigerien junta, although it remains uncertain whether it will provide military assistance in defense of Niger.

Abounding natural resources and grinding poverty

West Africa is gifted with huge reserves of gold and uranium, but these precious resources went to add to the wealth of filthy rich Western and US economies instead of eradicating the extreme poverty of the West African nations.

Despite Niger serving as a foreign military station and experiencing neocolonial exploitation, a significant portion of the population, approximately 80%, lacks access to electricity and lives on less than $2 per day. This dire socio-economic situation has contributed to widespread endorsement of the military coup among the populace.

France possesses the fourth-highest quantity of gold reserves globally, amounting to 2,436 metric tonnes. However, it is noteworthy that France does not possess any gold mines within its territorial boundaries. Mali, a nation that was once under the colonial rule of France, currently possesses a total of 860 gold mines and exhibits an annual gold production of 50 metric tonnes. However, the West African country does not possess any gold reserves in its banking system.

Tchiani, who recently assumed leadership and jailed President Mohamed Bazoum -- a close associate of France and the US -- has promptly implemented a prohibition on the exportation of uranium to France. Niger plays a significant role in meeting the European Union's uranium demands, accounting for more than 20% of its total requirements. This supply is of utmost importance, particularly for French nuclear reactors to run.

US and EU military presence in Niger

France maintains a military presence in Niger with an estimated force strength ranging from 1000 to 1500 personnel. The US now maintains a military presence in Niger, with a total of 1100 troops deployed in the region. Additionally, the US has invested a significant amount of financial resources, amounting to $110 million, in the establishment and maintenance of the Agadez Air Base. Italy currently maintains a contingent of 300 military personnel in the Republic of Niger.

The recently established government of Niger has issued a directive to the Armed Forces, instructing them to apprehend European Nationals who remain within the country until France and other Western Powers reach an agreement to withdraw their respective armed forces from Niger. France, the United States, and Italy currently have a collective military presence in Niger, with an approximate total of 3000 personnel in addition to air bases within the nation.