The political crisis in Bangladesh after the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on 5th August 2024 has ignited a lot of concern in the country as well as the South Asian region. Once a leading politician, Hasina had to escape to India due to brutal civil unrest involving student protests over government-reserved jobs and excessive use of force to suppress them resulting in more than 600 deaths. When the dust finally cleared and the smoke subsided, Bangladesh remained at a crossroads of political instability, economic insecurity, and shifting allegiances. Questions are being asked regarding the future of the country, and the stability of the region as well.

The student protests began in early July of 2024, the protests were peaceful in nature and the demands were to abolish quotas in civil service jobs. One-third of the seats in civil service jobs are reserved for the relatives of veterans of Bangladesh’s war of independence in 1971. As the government response to the protests became violent, the protests became more anti-government, about corruption, nepotism, and the growth of the authoritarian regime and the initial peaceful plight of the students soon morphed into nationwide riots.  Ultimately forcing Hasina to seek refuge in India. Hasina Wajid has been in power for almost 15 years, her absence raises questions about the future.

In her absence, Muhammad Yunus the Nobel Peace Prize winner was named the head of the interim government. Yunus, who repeatedly criticized Hasina’s regime, pledged to provide stability for the country and create a basis for the new political generation. His goals are to bring order to the country, revitalize the state institutions, and prepare for free and fair elections. Nevertheless, the problems that lie forward for Yunus are huge. Although the protests have now been relatively calm, Bangladesh’s economy is now on the brink of collapse. The protests affected the flow of supplies and many factories shut down, especially in the garment industry which is a mainstay of the country’s economy. The strikes in this important sector of the economy have compounded the problem thereby making it a herculean task to recover. Apart from the strikes, the recent floods in Bangladesh have inundated roughly a million acres of land, affecting 1.24 million families and so far the estimated economic losses are being calculated at $170 million. 

While Yunus enjoys positive approval ratings, Bangladesh is still torn when it comes to Hasina. Many point fingers at Hasina for being corrupt and authoritarian while others argue that she single-handedly changed the face of Bangladesh economically. These divisions have fostered political instabilities that surround Yunus and which he must avoid to prevent the escalation of instabilities. The majority of Hasina’s supporters expected her to come back into power and thought that her dismissal was part of a plan to destabilize the achievements of Bangladesh with the leadership of Hasina.

After resigning from office Hasina fled to India, her continued presence in India has posed a rather interesting problem to New Delhi. Bangladesh is not only a neighboring country, but it is also an important strategic ally of India which has played a significant role in India’s security on its eastern front, especially with regards to its North Eastern region. Under Hasina’s leadership, India-Bangladesh relations were sound. India offered Bangladesh more than $7 billion credit for infrastructure development and Bangladesh and India had good cooperation in the strategic security field to tame cross-border terrorism and insurgent activities.

India enjoyed great relations with Hasina but the relations with the new interim government headed by Yunus have become strained, for unceasingly harboring Hasina, On the one hand, India desires to maintain its influence over Bangladesh for it has strategic benefits for India; on the other hand, there is increasing hostility in Dhaka towards India. A majority of Bangladeshis are convinced that India supported Hasina’s government, especially in times of sensitive elections that were regarded as fixed. Even the floods in Bangladesh have given rise to the anti-India sentiments in the country. Many in Bangladesh believe that India’s opening of the Dumbur Dam triggered excess water to flow into Bangladesh causing floods. Bangladesh’s Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre also reported that India did not issue a warning about the water release, which could have mitigated the damage. Past grievances over water-sharing have fueled resentment toward India.

The anti-India sentiments have put New Delhi in a diplomatic quandary of how to protect its interests without coming in the way of Bangladesh’s internal politics. This need for fine-tuning comes at a time when India’s ‘neighborhood first’ policy has been under strain in other parts of the region. In recent years, both the Maldives and Nepal have defied Indian overtures and now Bangladesh’s political turn of events presents a third. Not only this, China also has started emerging as a rival power in South Asia putting India in a position to re-strategize in order to remain a dominant player in the region.

Amid the crisis, Sheikh Hasina has stated what can be described as chilling claims that she was overthrown with the help of the United States of America. Speaking to the Indian media, the Print, Hasina accused the US of removing her because of her insistence in rebuffing the US’s request to set up a military air base on St. Martin’s Island in the Bay of Bengal. Hasina asserts that her refusal to relinquish the geographically sensitive island to America was the result of her political demise. She said had she not resigned when she did, Bangladesh would have experienced more bloodshed.

Although the allegations made by Hasina have not been substantiated, they do turn the public’s attention towards the escalating geopolitical rivalry concerning Bangladesh and the rest of the countries in the Bay of Bengal area. St. Martin’s Island being a small island has strategic importance. With its location in the Indian Ocean, the island is a strategic location of international interests hence becoming a theatre of power struggle among some of the world powers such as the US, India, and China who are all searching for a foothold in the region. Hasina’s allegations indicate that her failure to succumb to the US pressures might have been the reason for her ouster, this shows the cutthroat nature of power politics within the South Asian region. While Hasina was in power, she continued to foster relations with both China and India thus putting Bangladesh in the middle ground of both the giants. Now that Hasina is not in power, one only wonders whether this balance will be upheld by the interim government or if they will shift more towards a particular world power.

Although India faces the predicament of how to sustain its influence in Bangladesh, China is not idle on the issue. In the last decade, China has gradually increased its investments in Bangladesh for the development of infrastructure and providing loans as per the BRI framework. Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s geographical position and emerging economy serve Beijing’s interest in diminishing the influence of India and the United States in South Asia.

Chinese engagement in Bangladesh is just one of the many activities that are taking place in the region as China intensifies its foreign investments. In the previous year, Maldives elected Mohamed Muizzu as president who has been reportedly against India and seemed to strengthen his relations with China. It is in this context that China is gradually increasing its hold on Bangladesh and other countries, making India realize that it needs to carve out strategies that do not let it lose important partners to the latter.

One month after Sheikh Hasina’s ousting, Bangladesh is at a crossroads. The interim government headed by Muhammad Yunus has the daunting challenge of reconstructing the nation, conducting free and fair elections, and finding solutions to the economic and political crises left by Hasina’s downfall. Yunus has claimed to bring a ‘new Bangladesh’, but the future is not at all clear. Much will depend on the ability of the interim government to remain stable and exercise a rather difficult balancing act between local and global stakeholders.

In this regard, the situation in Bangladesh is a problem for India as well as a potential opportunity. Thus, New Delhi has many challenges, but the most significant ones are the management of the strategic achievements in Dhaka and rising geopolitical competition in the region, where China and the US are growing their influence. The consequence of this fight will not only affect Bangladesh but the South Asian region in general.

The change has already started in the region as evidenced by the events taking place in Bangladesh. Thus, the future development of the country will determine the configuration of South Asian geopolitics, the prospects of which go far beyond the framework of this region.