Netanyahu has decided to invade Rafah. The city in the southern part of the Gaza Strip is home to over 1 million refugees who have fled "Israel’s" relentless campaign of bombing and destruction. Although pushes were made for a last-minute peace deal, to nobody’s surprise, this has been rejected with Netanyahu again citing his desire for a war of a total annihilation of Hamas and a military occupation of the Gaza strip, arguing that the old status quo cannot be reset. This has skewered pushes for a ceasefire.

First, was there any serious hope that "Israel" would agree to a prolonged ceasefire or a withdrawal from the Strip? The answer is no, there should be no illusions surrounding the reality that Benjamin Netanyahu completely rejects the notion of a "two-state solution" to the Israeli-Palestinian struggle, and anyone who believes otherwise is peddling a fantasy. Not only has Netanyahu stepped up settlements in the occupied West Bank and oppression of Palestinians, but his vision for the Gaza Strip is one that "Israel" completely controls. He deems that his entire political career hinges upon achieving these ultranationalist goals and has made it clear from the beginning that there is to be no compromise, and thus no self-governing Palestine. 

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Although he made tactical retreats over the past month, this was merely to buy time during which the US builds a “temporary pier” in Gaza, so that "Israel" itself could then have full liberty to close every border crossing and thus attain de-facto sovereign control over every entry into the Strip. During this period, Netanyahu subsequently filled the gap by deliberately provoking confrontation with Iran and, in the process, ensuring that US military aid for the IOF got passed, creating a sense of hysteria and alarm in Washington that “democracy” was at risk.

This might tell us that there is no reason to believe any Western country will take serious action to stop "Israel". In fact, censorship of the pro-Palestinian position under the guise of “antisemitism” and “terrorism” is even growing. A US congressional bill serves to broaden the definition of antisemitism to relate it to all criticism of "Israel" and to penalize those who speak out, motivated by on-campus protests against the events in Gaza. The attempt to ban the social media application TikTok and force its sale to an American owner is widely believed to be motivated by the fact that they cannot control the narrative on it while it exposes "Israel’s" crimes to young people. If the US claims it supports a "two-state solution", there is no reason to take it seriously, hence a UN resolution affirming just that was vetoed.

It goes without saying that the Biden administration has its hands completely tied by the overtly pro-"Israel" congress, and there is zero political incentive for them to take a stand, not least this close to an election. This is not just the case in Europe, but throughout the wider West too where censorship is being ramped up and criticism is being suppressed. In France, a Palestinian surgeon who is a British passport holder also got banned from entering the country to address the Senate. Because of this, Netanyahu does not have any reason to fear Western pressure and at most sees it as a battle of wills that he can hold out on. Therefore, an invasion of Rafah was not a question of “if”, it was a matter of when.

When all is considered, attempts to get "Israel" to refrain from an invasion of Rafah have largely been in vain. As the US continues to give effective unconditional backing to Benjamin Netanyahu, he continues to tactically exploit this to push against every boundary, using a mix of delaying tactics, provocations, and risk-inducing strategies, and thus bring about the goals he pledged. The consequences of this will be disastrous, as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that this assault “put the final nail in the coffin” of humanitarian aid operations in Gaza. That is, of course, by design, as Netanyahu has no intention of letting Palestinians govern the Gaza strip again, and following this, a full military occupation will follow, with a likely return to settlement building.