Widespread protests, destruction of infrastructure, attacks on military installations and significant damage to the teetering national economy characterized Pakistan’s domestic landscape on the 9th of May, 2023. The decision by the federal accountability watch dog, the National Accountability Bureau to arrest the chairman of the highly popular Pakistan Tehreek I Insaaf political party, Imran Khan was met with massive discontent, public anger, youth disillusionment and civilian defiance against the authorities. The ensuing crisis engulfed the only nuclear armed Muslim state into turmoil, and was only diffused after a Supreme Court ruling stated that the arrest of a Pakistani citizen who has surrendered to a court of law is illegal. Yet the multiple variables at play in Pakistan and the events that unfolded on the 15th of May, 2023 demonstrates that the crisis is far from over.  

Firstly, the diffusion by the Supreme Court is temporary. After deeming the arrest of Khan by NAB as illegal, the Apex Court directed Khan to appear before the Islamabad High Court (where he was initially arrested) and apply for bail in the Al Qadir University Trust case. The case revolves around an allegation that the PTI government struck a deal with property tycoon, Malik Riaz Hussain that caused a loss of $239 million to the national exchequer as a quid pro quo arrangement to obtain land worth billions of rupees. Much to the delight of PTI supporters, the IHC granted bail in the case and stated clearly that Khan cannot be arrested till May the 15th, 2023. However, he appeared at the Lahore High Court which granted bail to his wife till the 23rd of May, 2023 while his own bail application will be heard. After the illegal arrest by NAB, the subsequent relief from the courts and widespread protests across Pakistan, Imran Khan returned to his residence in the industrial city of Lahore amid jubilation from his supporters.   

Ideally, the Supreme Court’s decision and the IHC granting bail to Khan should diffuse the crisis and bury the hatchet. However, the quagmire is worsening as the senior leadership of Khan’s party including Vice Chairman of the PTI and former Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, senior member and former Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting, Fawad Chaudhry and former Minister of the National Assembly, Maleeka Bukhari have all been incarcerated. To make matters worse, the Interior Minister of the country, Rana Sanaullah Khan confirmed that the government still intends to arrest Imran Khan and ban the PTI as a political party by characterizing it as a terrorist organization. The truth is that the country is still sitting on a tinderbox. 

The 14th of May, 2023 was also the date when elections were supposed to be held in Pakistan as per the Supreme Court’s directives. As other countries in Asia such as Turkiye and Thailand uphold popular sovereignty, Pakistan is caught amid a judicial crisis with internal divisions in the Apex Court and sustained pressure from the ruling government preventing elections from taking place despite  the earlier dissolution of the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial assemblies by the PTI government. On the 15th of May, 2023 the parliament passed a resolution condemning the supposed ‘vandalism’ by the PTI supporters with no mention of whether elections as per Article 184 (3) of the constitution of Pakistan should be held. Talk has also centered on filing references against the Chief Justice of Pakistan who is accused of being partisan and political. 

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Furthermore, the government and the Election Commission of Pakistan remain adamant on not holding polls which violates of the constitution and refusing to provide the requisite funding needed to conduct the elections in the most populous province of the country, Punjab is adding to the impasse. By violating the Supreme Court’s directives, the ruling government finds itself cornered amid an economic meltdown. After Imran Khan’s reprieve from the courts, ruling government officials also unjustifiably castigated and censured the Chief Justice. Hence, the possibility of contempt of court proceedings to be initiated against Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the entire cabinet looms large. 

Then comes the role of the conservative Jamiat E-Ulema Islam (F) party’s agitation alongside members of the ruling government on the 15th of May, 2023. The party descended on the capital, Islamabad despite the imposition of section 144 of the constitution which bans public gatherings. The party’s leader, Fazl Ul Rehman labeled Imran Khan as a ‘terrorist’ and his party, the PTI as a ‘terrorist’ organization. He also stated that the Supreme Court verdict was ‘engineered’ and echoed calls by the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz’s (PML-N) chief organizer Maryam Nawaz’s demand that the Chief Justice should resign. The JUI F supporters jumped over sealed gates of Constitutional Avenue in Islamabad which comes amid further arrests of PTI leaders. This unrest further strengthens PTI Chief Imran Khan’s claims that duplicity, double standards and selective accountability is being practiced against the PTI. Fazl Ul Rehman further stated that the relief provided to Khan by the Supreme Court is a perversion for justice. 

While banning the PTI party is contestable, the possibility of Imran Khan being arrested again (this time outside the premises of the courts), is not. As stated by the Interior Minister, the government machinery along with the NAB apparatus will continue to hold Imran accountable for over 100 cases of alleged violence, corruption, terrorism and threats to public order. Furthermore, Khan has called for more protests to realize true freedom which followed an announcement of his return to campaigning of the elections. The truth is that regardless of whether his arrest is legal or unconstitutional, his clout, influence and the PTI’s massive popularity cannot be sidelined. 

Another variable is Khan’s tussle with the Pakistani military establishment which has continued since his ouster in 2022 and allowed the crisis to fester. He openly accused the Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir of maligning the military amid his extra constitutional arrest on the premises of the IHC. What the May 2023 crisis has revealed is that the rift between the PTI and the military is widening and is contributing to growing polarization in Pakistan. It also opens up avenues for Khan and his largely incarcerated senior leadership to face further proceedings.  

With the economy nosediving, the currency being devalued and an IMF bailout hanging by tenterhooks, instability in Pakistan is far from over. The quest to arrest Imran Khan as the most popular politician in the country’s history, is backfiring and backfiring miserably.