Will Jordan sever its relations with the Zionist Entity over Al-Aqsa?

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This Tuesday, a light was again shone on the ongoing Zionist effort to change the status quo at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound and to purge both the Christian and Muslim heritage in the Old City of occupied Jerusalem. Upon entering the Al-Aqsa compound, the Jordanian ambassador to "Tel Aviv", Ghassan Majali, was intercepted by members of the Israeli occupation forces near the Bab al-Asbat (Lions' Gate) entrance to the site. A member of the Jordanian diplomat's entourage was even pushed by one of the members of the Zionist police force. 

Despite the incident being filmed, the Israeli authorities quickly attempted to spin the event as a simple misunderstanding that had occurred due to a lack of forewarning before the Jordanian delegation entered the site. The Hashemite Kingdom quickly summoned the Israeli ambassador, protesting the blocking of the path of the Jordanian diplomat by issuing an official foreign ministry statement condemning the act. Despite the Zionist attempts to frame the incident as having been a slight delay in entering the site due to an occupation force member needing to check the identity of the ambassador, it was clear that he had already entered the site and that the Zionist police had released a misleading statement.

Later during the same day, the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority, met in Cairo to coordinate on a variety of issues between all sides. At the meeting, Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi and King Abdullah II, issued a warning against “illegal and unilateral” actions taken by "Israel" against the Palestinian people, urging the occupying regime to maintain the status quo at Al-Aqsa Mosque. Additionally, on Tuesday, it is notable that Sheikh Omar al-Kiswani, the Waqf-appointed director of Al-Aqsa, was briefly stopped, questioned and searched at the site. This follows a trend of detaining leading Muslim figures at al-Aqsa, as earlier this month Sheikh Ikrima Sabri, the Al-Aqsa Mosque's Imam, was summoned for questioning and was threatened at the infamous Al-Moskobiyah torture/detention center. 

This provocation at Al-Aqsa mosque caused the second major flare-up between Amman and Tel Aviv, in just a matter of weeks. The first major provocation came on January 3, just days into the reign of the new Israeli regime, with "Israel’s" Police Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, storming the site unannounced under a tight security protocol. Ben-Gvir and other high-ranking Zionist officials have openly endorsed the view that not only should the status quo at Al-Aqsa be changed, but that the Islamic Holy Site should be destroyed and replaced with the Jewish “Third Temple”.

The reason why these developments are so serious for Jordan and its normalization deal with "Tel Aviv", is due to the Hashemite Kingdom’s custodianship over the Muslim and Christian sites in occupied Jerusalem. The Al-Aqsa mosque is supposed to be a site whereby the Jordanian-Palestinian joint Islamic trust (the Waqf) manages affairs inside the grounds of the site, whereas the Israeli occupation forces are only permitted to manage the perimeter.

The status quo is that Muslims are permitted to enter the site at any time, whereas any non-Muslim must enter at specific times of the day through one entrance, and others seeking to enter must receive permission to do so from the Waqf. Israeli authorities routinely ignore this status quo agreement, which is supposedly in agreement with the regime’s own policy stance, allowing for tens of thousands of extremist Zionist ultranationalists to storm the grounds, provocatively perform rituals there, and Zionist forces will routinely enter the site, shooting at Muslim worshippers, and attacking the mosques on site. The courtyards of Al-Aqsa are constantly invaded by Zionist forces who will routinely block or delay refurbishment activities, silence the call to prayer, and prevent the free access of some Muslims to the site.

Last year, a total of 50,000 Israeli settlers entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque in violation of the status quo, and during the month of Ramadan, hundreds of Muslim worshippers were injured by Israeli forces. One teenager was even shot dead at the site, as Israeli forces desecrated the Al-Qibli mosque on site. None of this caused a significant uproar from Amman, the likes of which we have seen during the past month, however, this year things may begin to change.

"Israel" is actively seeking to change the status quo at Al-Aqsa Mosque, even during the UN Security Council meeting called earlier this month over Itamar Ben-Gvir’s storming of the site, the Israeli ambassador, Gilad Erdan, relentlessly attacked the status quo at the site, asserting that “Israel” has sovereignty over what he described as a Jewish site. The regime of Benjamin Netanyahu states that it will maintain the status quo, yet is doing the very opposite. Jordan’s ambassador does not need to notify any Israeli to enter al-Aqsa and the recent provocation was purely the doing of "Israel"; it had nothing to do with the Jordanian ambassador showing up at the holy site unannounced as the Zionist regime claims.

Last year, there were warnings issued by Jordan, and earlier this month King Abdallah II told CNN in an exclusive interview that if ‘red lines’ are crossed, Jordan is prepared for a conflict with the Zionist regime. Last September, it is also notable that the Jordanian monarch chose to focus a key portion of his speech to the UN General Assembly on the issue of occupied Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa Mosque. During the days of the Trump administration, there were rumors that Israeli PM Netanyahu was attempting to hand over the custodianship of occupied Jerusalem’s holy sites to Saudi Arabia in exchange for a normalization deal, which was said to have factored into a schism between Amman and "Tel Aviv".

It also has to be noted that the “Negev summit”, which took place last year and is leading the way to the greater development of ties between Egypt, Morocco, Bahrain, and the UAE, with "Israel", did not include the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. Although Jordan is cooperating with the Zionist regime on a large number of projects, Amman is clearly not part of the normalization group in the same way as the others and is treading carefully. 

The question now becomes; how far can "Israel" push Jordan before their ties break down? This is not a simple question to answer and for both sides to fully disengage is unlikely. Even if it is in secrecy, as many Arab regimes conducted their relationships in the past, there will likely be dialogue. Yet, Jordan is not like any of the other Arab regimes that have normalized and are intrinsically linked to Palestine, whether the regime likes it or not.

To begin with, it is notable that when scores of Palestinians are murdered in Gaza or the West Bank, Jordan’s relationship with the Zionist entity may weaken somewhat, but this is never enough to force the King to scrap his country’s normalization deal. However, when it comes to the Hashemite custodianship over Al-Aqsa, this is a different issue altogether. For King Abdallah II, not only is this custodianship intrinsically linked to his religion, but also his family, and giving up this birth-right of his would be akin to spitting on his own bloodline, a piece of honor that he will not simply give up without a fight. Alternatively, if it is not about honor, religion, or family, the King will have to fight for this issue for power in his country, as the population of Jordan will also not stand for such an attack on the third holiest site in Islam. Losing the custodianship over Al-Aqsa would mean losing much of his legitimacy in the eyes of the Jordanian tribes, in addition to the Palestinian-Jordanians, which make up the majority of the population.

For all the reasons noted above, amongst others, Jordan is not like the other Arab regimes that have normalized ties with the Zionist entity. Amman will likely be forced to at least formally break off ties with "Tel Aviv" if the status quo is changed, and despite the repercussions of such an action, the Zionist regime continues full-speed ahead towards a major conflict over the holy Al-Aqsa Mosque.