The United States could see the migration of hundreds of thousands of people out of the country this year due to President Donald Trump's immigration agenda, Newsweek reported on Friday, citing a recently published study. However, experts believe his aggressive campaign of deportations and entry restrictions may shrink the foreign-born workforce, ultimately harming the economy.

In a recent research paper published by the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute (AEI), researchers estimated that net migration to the United States could range between 525,000 and 1.15 million this year, a figure they say reflects "a sharp decline in inflows and a modest rise in outflows."

This compares to roughly 1.3 million immigrants in 2024, according to Macrotrends, and 330,000 in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic brought global travel to a sudden halt. If the most conservative estimates prove accurate, the US could see negative net migration for the first time in decades.

Significant economic blow

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Since foreign-born workers make up 19.2% of the US workforce according to the Labor Department,  and immigrants also represent a substantial portion of consumer spending, a decline of this scale could weaken both the labor market and household consumption, ultimately dragging down GDP growth by up to 0.4% this year.

This matches the findings of a separate study released last week by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which indicates that reduced immigration could knock 0.75% to 1.0% off GDP growth this year.

Giovanni Peri, a UC Davis labor economist, told Newsweek that sustained migration declines would hit lower-skilled sectors hardest, construction, agriculture, hospitality, and personal services, where US-born workers rarely replace lost immigrant labor. This, in turn, would lead to a rise in prices in these sectors.

Deportations cull consumer spending

According to an American Enterprise Institute paper, lower consumer spending would reduce business revenues, leading to layoffs and adding another layer of pressure to a labor market already strained by workforce decline.

American Immigration Council estimates find that the foreign-born population in the United States holds approximately $1.7 trillion in spending power, with undocumented immigrants accounting for $299 billion of this total, while collectively contributing $167 billion in rental payments during 2023.

Despite potential economic consequences, President Trump continues to advance his immigration agenda, with deportations ongoing and $150 billion in newly approved enforcement funding. AEI's Stan Veuger expressed cautious hope but little optimism that economic growth concerns would lead to a reconsideration of these policies.