ANZ forecasts gold to hit $4,400 by year-end, peak at $4,600 in 2026
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ANZ forecasts gold to reach $4,400/oz by end-2025 and peak at $4,600 in mid-2026, driven by global uncertainty and expected US rate cuts. UBS sees upside to $4,700.
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Gold bars are stacked in a vault at the US Mint in West Point, New York on July 22, 2014. (AP)
Gold is set to continue its meteoric rise, with ANZ forecasting prices to hit $4,400 per ounce by the end of 2025, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and expectations of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve.
The bank projects a peak near $4,600 by mid-2026, followed by a gradual decline in the second half of the year as the Fed concludes its easing cycle and greater clarity emerges on US growth and trade policy.
Despite the bullish outlook, ANZ cautioned against potential downside risks, including a more aggressive Fed stance or stronger-than-expected US economic performance.
“With returns exceeding 60% to $4,200/oz so far this year, the rally still looks strong and shows no signs of losing momentum. We do not see any near-term trigger that could reverse the current uptrend, though a healthy correction is possible,” the bank noted.
Trade tensions rekindled
Global markets were unsettled after US President Donald Trump reignited the long-standing trade dispute with China late last week, effectively ending a fragile truce between the two largest economies. The move included new tariff threats on select Chinese goods and renewed restrictions on tech exports, heightening fears of a broader economic slowdown.
This escalation has driven investors toward safe-haven assets such as gold, US Treasuries, and the Swiss franc. Analysts at FXStreet noted that the renewed conflict ignited haven demand on concerns over a potential breakdown in trade relations, adding to an already fragile market backdrop shaped by sluggish global manufacturing and rising protectionism.
UBS also weighed in, pointing to the likelihood of real interest rates dipping into negative territory, which could make gold even more attractive. The firm sees potential for gold to reach $4,700 per ounce under its upside scenario.
