Al Mayadeen English

  • Ar
  • Es
  • x
Al Mayadeen English

Slogan

  • News
    • Politics
    • Economy
    • Sports
    • Arts&Culture
    • Health
    • Miscellaneous
    • Technology
    • Environment
  • Articles
    • Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Blog
    • Features
  • Videos
    • NewsFeed
    • Video Features
    • Explainers
    • TV
    • Digital Series
  • Infographs
  • In Pictures
  • • LIVE
News
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Sports
  • Arts&Culture
  • Health
  • Miscellaneous
  • Technology
  • Environment
Articles
  • Opinion
  • Analysis
  • Blog
  • Features
Videos
  • NewsFeed
  • Video Features
  • Explainers
  • TV
  • Digital Series
Infographs
In Pictures
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Europe
  • Latin America
  • MENA
  • Palestine
  • US & Canada
BREAKING
Al Mayadeen's correspondent: More than 70 martyrs in Israeli attacks on Gaza since dawn.
Death toll from latest Israeli strikes on Gaza rises to 30
Al Mayadeen's correspondent: Five killed in the Israeli bombing of a civilian vehicle on Al-Qassam Street in Khan Younis, south of the Gaza Strip
Hamas confirms that it has no connection to the shooting incident in Rafah and affirms its commitment to the ceasefire agreement
Al Mayadeen's correspondent: Two civilians were killed and four others, including a child and an infant, were injured in an Israeli bombing of a house belonging to the Al-Banna family in the al-Sabra neighborhood, south of Gaza City
Al Mayadeen's correspondent: An Israeli airstrike targets the vicinity of Al-Shifa Medical Complex, west of Gaza City
Al-Qassam: We will postpone the handover of the body of the Israeli captive we found, which was scheduled for today, due to the occupation's violations
Al Mayadeen's correspondent in Gaza: Israeli occupation aircraft launch airstrikes on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip
Netanyahu's office: At the end of the security consultations, the prime minister instructed the military to launch massive military strikes on the Gaza Strip immediately
President Aoun: We urge the activation of the monitoring committee, the cessation of hostilities, ongoing Israeli violations, attacks

FT: Why oil sanctions are no longer effective

  • By Al Mayadeen English
  • Source: Financial Times
  • 24 Jul 2025 15:03
  • 1 Shares
4 Min Read

Analysis shows that despite $1.9 trillion in economic losses, US oil sanctions failed to alter Iranian or Russian policy and instead expanded China’s influence in global energy.

Listen
  • x
  • FT: Why oil sanctions are no longer effective
    Chinese Foreign Minister Wag Yi, stands with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, left, and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazeem Gharibabadi, right, before a meeting regarding the Iranian nuclear issue at Diaoyutai State Guest House on March 14, 2025 in Beijing, China. (Pool Photo via AP)

In an article for the Financial Times, Gregory Brew, an analyst with Eurosia Group's Energy, Climate & Resource team who specializes in the geopolitics of oil and gas, argues that modern oil sanctions have lost their potency as instruments of economic coercion.

Rather than altering state behavior, sanctions have benefited geopolitical players like China while failing to produce intended political shifts. Despite inflicting heavy economic costs, approximately $1.2 trillion for Iran and $750 billion for Russia, sanctions have not achieved their core objectives. Consequently, Brew calls for a strategic reassessment of US foreign policy tools.

Oil sanctions were initially designed to compel states into compliance through economic pressure. In theory, severe economic disruptions are thought by policymakers as capable of forcing policy changes. However, as Gregory Brew highlights, the experiences of Iran and Russia reveal a different reality. Iran’s GDP shrank by 16% annually between 2012 and 2015, with citizens losing an average of $14,000 in income over 12 years. Russia’s economy might have been 20% larger without sanctions, with 70% of its banking assets now under restrictions.

Despite these burdens, both nations have remained steadfast in their strategic and governing objectives, weathering US attempts to undermine their sovereignty. Iran resisted US demands on its nuclear program, and Russia continued its war with Ukraine. The presumed correlation between economic hardship and political compliance has effectively collapsed.

Iran’s oil exports adapt to sanctions

Related News

Amnesty: US strike on Yemen prison may constitute war crime

Trump’s weak dollar strategy risks global fallout: Forbes

Following Washington’s exit from the 2015 nuclear agreement, Iran’s oil exports decreased, exacerbated by the COVID-19 crisis. Still, the market did not vanish. Instead, it evolved. Brew illustrates how China began importing nearly 2 million barrels per day of Iranian crude, elevating its reliance on Iran to 14.6% of total oil imports. This shift illustrates how the global oil market adapts to sanctions rather than succumbing to them.

Brew identifies Chinese "teapot" refiners, operating outside Western financial networks, as pivotal buyers of sanctioned oil. In doing so, Beijing concealed its dealings with Tehran through opaque customs reporting. Iran’s economy, heavily impacted across agriculture, industry, and services, with sector losses estimated at $150 billion, $450 billion, and $600 billion, respectively, now operates through a sanctions-resistant framework.

Russia’s energy sector and western sanctions

The 2022 US-led sanctions on Russia emphasized financial tools, including the G7 price cap, intending to limit revenue without curbing exports. This approach, as Brew explains, deprived Moscow of over $500 billion through frozen reserves and lost energy revenue.

However, the outcome mirrored Iran’s experience. Despite losing $170 billion from direct financial restrictions and $400 billion from energy losses, Russia continued to finance its operations. GDP fell by 2.1% in 2022, only to grow by 3.6% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. Albeit, this subsequent growth mainly stemmed from war spending rather than economic recovery. Meanwhile, India and China capitalized by purchasing discounted Russian crude, profiting from reexports, particularly to European markets.

According to Brew’s analysis, the real winner from oil sanctions has been China. By absorbing sanctioned oil at lower prices, it has positioned itself as the central player in a bifurcated global oil system. Both Iran and Russia now depend on Beijing, granting China substantial strategic leverage and discounted access to vital energy resources.

Rethinking US foreign policy

Gregory Brew recommends a pivot in US strategy. Rather than doubling down, Washington should reassess the effectiveness of oil sanctions. Targeted sanctions remain useful for limiting specific entities within Western financial systems, but broad sanctions have failed to alter adversarial policies.

He cautions that full-scale sanctions on China would backfire. As the world’s top oil importer, penalizing Chinese trade would destabilize US energy markets and harm American producers. Instead, he encourages gradual decoupling via tariffs and export controls, in coordination with allies.

As Brew concludes, sanctions have restructured, not suppressed, oil markets. Iran and Russia continue to export significant volumes through alternative routes, particularly to China. The geopolitical map of energy has shifted, and traditional tools of economic coercion are now blunt instruments.

  • United States
  • global order
  • sanctions
  • Russia
  • Trump administration
  • global oil market
  • Sanctions on Russia
  • Sanctions on Iran
  • China
  • Oil Production
  • Islamic Republic of Iran
  • US foreign policy
  • Iran

Most Read

'Israel’s Digital Iron Dome: Weaponizing the web against Palestine

'Israel’s Digital Iron Dome: Weaponizing the web against Palestine

  • Technology
  • 24 Oct 2025
Arab League chief exposes secret US deal shielding 'Israel’s' nukes

Arab League chief exposes secret US deal shielding 'Israel’s' nukes

  • Politics
  • 27 Oct 2025
Abu Hamza, the spokesperson for the Al-Quds Brigades, during a speech televised on October 22, 2025 (Al-Quds Brigades Military Media)

Al-Quds Brigades' Abu Hamza mourns leaders, vows continued resistance

  • Politics
  • 22 Oct 2025
US missionary kidnapped in Niger capital, suspected taken toward Mali

US missionary kidnapped in Niger capital, suspected taken toward Mali

  • Africa
  • 23 Oct 2025

Coverage

All
War on Gaza

Read Next

All
Members of the al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, and Egyptian workers search for the bodies of hostages in a tunnel discovered during searches in Hamad City, Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, on Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025 (AP)
Politics

'Israel' obstructing Gaza body recovery, creating false claims: Hamas

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawwaf Salam talks to US Deputy Special Envoy to the Middle East Morgan Ortagus at the Grand Serail in Beirut, Lebanon, October 28, 2025 (NNA)
Politics

Salam conveys to Ortagus goals behind any possible negotiations

Writers boycott NYT, demand justice as Gaza media ban faces court
Politics

300+ writers boycott NYT Opinion, cite persistent anti-Palestine bias

Settlers attack West Bank olive harvesters, Injure 3 Palestinians
Politics

Settlers attack West Bank olive harvesters, injure 3 Palestinians

Al Mayadeen English

Al Mayadeen is an Arab Independent Media Satellite Channel.

All Rights Reserved

  • x
  • Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Authors
Android
iOS