Global oil prices climbed by nearly 2% on Tuesday amid growing fears in Western markets over the consequences of Iran's firm response to "Israel's" military aggression. The rise comes as Tehran's position against repeated violations of its sovereignty gains traction, with global energy markets increasingly sensitive to the fallout from "Israel's" escalation.

As of 11:34 GMT, August futures for Brent crude stood at $74.66 per barrel, up 1.95%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 1.88% to $71.57 per barrel. These gains follow last Friday's dramatic spike, Brent jumped 7% and WTI 7.26%, marking the sharpest daily increase since 2022.

The surge was triggered after the Israeli military launched a large-scale assault, codenamed Rising Lion, on Iranian military and nuclear sites. In a clear act of deterrence, Iran responded swiftly with Operation True Promise III, a coordinated missile campaign targeting key Israeli military facilities. The retaliatory strikes, involving hundreds of missiles launched from across Iran, exposed the vulnerability of "Israel's" infrastructure and military readiness.

Hormuz Leverage

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In the aftermath, Iranian MP Esmail Kowsari, a senior figure on the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that Tehran is weighing the option of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor responsible for 20% of the world's oil shipments and a fifth of its LNG flows, mainly from Qatar. The move would represent a legitimate defensive measure against foreign provocation, aligned with international law.

Speaking to RIA Novosti, Vladimir Bragin, Director of Financial Markets and Macroeconomics at Alfa Capital Management, mentioned that market participants have begun increasing long positions in anticipation of a prolonged confrontation. He explained that nearly a quarter of global offshore oil trade passes through the Strait, and any closure would significantly shake global energy markets.

Bragin also noted that Iran's daily oil production, around 3.3 million barrels, with 1.7 million exported, plays a crucial role in balancing the global energy equation. If Western aggression results in the removal of Iranian oil from the market, the expected surplus in Q4 could be erased. While  OPEC has spare capacity, Bragin cautioned that it may not be enough to fully compensate without causing major price shifts.

Read more: European gas prices rise amid Israeli-wrought tensions, LNG risks

Fitch Ratings added that oil prices could rise by $5 to $10 per barrel if the situation escalates further, though it still considers a full closure of the Strait unlikely, downplaying Iran's strategic leverage in the region.

With the Israeli regime's attacks leading to instability across multiple energy corridors, Tehran's measured but resolute response continues to reshape the global economic and geopolitical landscape.