OPEC+ is expected to keep its current oil production levels unchanged during its upcoming meeting, according to sources cited by Reuters within the alliance.

The decision comes as the group faces mounting concerns over a potential supply glut fueled by rising output from non-member producers and drawn-out peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

The meeting, which began on 1300 GMT on Sunday, involves the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia. OPEC+ currently accounts for around half of the world's oil supply.

Oil market pressures mount

Brent crude futures closed on Friday at approximately $63 per barrel, marking a 15% decline since the start of the year. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also fell, settling at $58.55 a barrel. Both contracts have now seen four consecutive months of losses, their longest streak since 2023, largely due to fears of a growing global supply surplus.

The drop in prices comes against the backdrop of stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. Analysts suggest that if a peace deal were to materialize, sanctions on Russian oil could ease, potentially flooding the market with additional supply. Conversely, the failure of talks could result in even tighter sanctions and further curb Russia's oil exports.

Current OPEC+ output levels

Since April 2025, OPEC+ has gradually increased supply, releasing approximately 2.9 million barrels  per day (bpd) back into the market. Despite these additions, the group still maintains cuts totaling around 3.24 million bpd, nearly 3% of global oil demand.

Sources cited by Reuters say the meeting will likely maintain these existing cuts. Instead of focusing on immediate supply adjustments, delegates are expected to deliberate on how to assess member states' maximum production capacities, which will serve as a foundation for future quota allocations starting in 2027.

Internal, external challenges facing OPEC+

The issue of production capacity has long been contentious within OPEC+. Some members, such as the United Arab Emirates, have significantly expanded their production capabilities and are pushing for higher quotas. In contrast, certain African nations with declining output levels are resisting quota reductions.

This disagreement has already led to one major exit: Angola withdrew from OPEC+ in 2024 over disputes regarding its quota.

Non-OPEC supply growth

Adding to OPEC+'s challenges is the surge in oil production from non-member countries, particularly the United States. According to the US Energy Information Administration, American crude oil output hit a record 13.84 million bpd in September 2025. The increase in supply from outside OPEC+ is raising alarms about a possible oversupply scenario in 2026.

Market outlook

A Reuters poll of 35 economists and analysts forecasts Brent crude will average $62.23 per barrel in 2026, down from October's projection of $63.15. So far in 2025, Brent has averaged $68.80 per barrel.

Despite short-term concerns, some market factors continue to support demand. Strong refining profit margins have bolstered crude consumption in select regions. Still, some analysts warn that rising supply remains the dominant force weighing on prices.

As geopolitical uncertainties persist and supply growth continues, OPEC+ appears to be opting for caution. By maintaining current output levels, the group is likely seeking stability in a volatile market while it navigates internal debates and external pressures.