United States President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed the United States–Australia Framework for Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths at the White House on Monday.

The meeting formalized a joint effort to expand mining, separation, and downstream processing capacity among allied governments. Both governments committed to immediate financing for priority projects, set up a joint supply-security response group, and listed specific projects, including Alcoa’s gallium recovery work and Arafura’s Nolans rare-earth project in Australia, among near-term priorities.

Deal details, immediate commitments

The framework sees critical minerals as an industrial-security priority.

Washington and Canberra each pledged at least $1 billion in financing toward priority projects over the next six months and presented an $8.5 billion pipeline of integrated projects intended to accelerate mining and processing in Australia and other facilities. The arrangement also includes measures to speed permitting, coordinate investment, set market-stabilizing mechanisms such as price floors, and establish a US-Australia “Critical Minerals Supply Security Response Group” to monitor vulnerabilities.

China’s structural dominance remains decisive

The logic behind the pact is straightforward: China continues to dominate key parts of the rare earth value chain.

While exact estimates vary by stage, recent analyses place China’s share at roughly 60-70% of mine production at points, 80-90% or higher of refining capacity, and well over 90% of high-performance permanent magnet manufacture. That concentration of mining and separation activities gives Beijing critical leverage over technologies vital to both civilian green industries and advanced defense systems, including US-made weapons.

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Australia’s Nd-Pr resources, missing midstream scale

Australia’s geology and current projects target the commercially critical elements, notably neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr), which feed high-performance magnets for EV motors, turbines, and defense hardware. Flagship projects such as Arafura’s Nolans and Mount Weld/Lynas provide legitimate sources of Nd-Pr and other mixed rare earths, making Australia one of the most promising US-allied suppliers for these specific elements.

Yet Australia currently lacks comparable scale in chemical separation, refining, and magnet fabrication; the most technically demanding and capital-intensive parts of the chain. Building those facilities is the central challenge the framework seeks to address.

In rare earth supply chains, the midstream stage covers the processing and refining of raw ores into usable oxides, metals, or magnets, a step currently dominated by China. Expanding Australia’s midstream capacity aims to establish an independent refining base that can supply US and Western industries without relying on Chinese facilities.

Limits and timelines

It is worth noting that financial pledges and expedited permitting shorten lead times but do not create processing plants overnight.

Transforming mined rare-earth ores into finished oxides, alloys, and high-performance magnets demands years of plant construction, advanced chemical infrastructure, and a skilled workforce, with full supply-chain integration likely taking a decade or more. In the short term, this means Western nations remain heavily dependent on Chinese supplies, raising questions about the feasibility and potential risks of aggressive US policies toward China, particularly in sectors reliant on high-performance magnets.

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Military and technological implications

Rare earths are critical for precision guidance systems, radar, electronic warfare suites, high-performance actuators in modern aircraft, and the permanent magnets that power motors and generators. The US remains heavily dependent on imports for processed rare earth products, with estimates ranging from 70-80% across various refined materials, creating a strategic vulnerability when production and magnet manufacturing are concentrated with a single supplier. Strengthening allied supply chains for these critical minerals is therefore directly linked to sustaining advanced military capabilities.

Against this backdrop, as the two sides signed the rare-earths deal, Trump reaffirmed the US commitment to the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine program during a White House meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, emphasizing that the agreement is proceeding “full steam ahead” despite earlier Pentagon reviews.

The trilateral AUKUS partnership, involving the US, UK, and Australia, aims to bolster their posture against China in the Indo-Pacific by equipping Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. Under the arrangement, Washington will deliver three Virginia-class submarines, with the first expected in 2032, while a new SSN-AUKUS class is being developed collaboratively, with the Royal Australian Navy scheduled to receive its first vessel in the early 2040s. Rare earth extraction and midstream processing are inseparable from the manufacture of modern weaponry; securing allied supply chains is thus central to credible deterrence, a reality underscored by Washington’s simultaneous push on critical minerals and its renewed AUKUS submarine commitments.

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