US to face mineral shortages amid boost in electric car production
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An assessment by the US Department of Energy states that critical mineral demand will need to increase by 600% by 2040 to achieve net zero by 2050.
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Refined tellurium is shown at the Rio Tinto Kennecott refinery on May 11, 2022, in Magna, Utah (AP)
According to experts, new clean energy strategies need to be developed by the US to reduce dependence on critical minerals as a result of shortages and to avert China’s supply chain dominance.
In the US Department of Energy (DOE)'s assessment last week, the list of critical materials was expanded to define those indispensable to the clean energy transition with a high risk of supply shortage, and six new elements were added.
The list, per the DOE, will keep expanding as the globe races to net-zero emissions. The department highlighted the importance of establishing dependent critical mineral supply chains necessary for energy security.
Among the critical minerals were nickel, platinum, and silicon carbide, which were added next to lithium and magnesium in the medium term (2025-2035), while graphite, terbium, and iridium join cobalt, gallium, dysprosium, and neodymium as those considered critical in both the short and medium term (from now until 2035).
The status of copper and aluminum was transferred from non-critical to "near critical" in the medium term due to their necessity for electrification across a wide spectrum.
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Citing data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the DOE's assessment stated that critical mineral demand will need to increase by 600% by 2040 to achieve net zero by 2050. The supply shortage in critical minerals comes amid the development of electric vehicles, which the IEA claims could account for 60% of all auto sales by 2030.
Now, China is the leading nation for the production of 30 of 50 minerals which the US Geological Survey classified as critical with vulnerable supply chains.
A scarcity scare
Business strategy consultant for Artax Consulting, Jonathan Poston, said: "Rare earth elements are a group of 17 elements that are essential for a wide range of clean energy technologies, including magnets, batteries, and catalysts." He further explained that "China is the world's leading producer of rare earth elements, along with graphite - critical to lithium-ion batteries - and there are concerns about China's control of the global supply chain."
A prediction by Poston, who has taught geopolitics and trade at universities in Ecuador, Belize and China, shows that domestic mining will increase in the US in a bid to close the gap, while looking for alternatives.
"New technologies will also emerge that reduce the need for critical minerals, such as battery tech that doesn't use lithium-ion," he said, believing that the US will need to resort to a multilateral approach to tackle the matter as resource sharing through global alliances and ventures will prove more important to secure mineral supplies.
The availability of cobalt, which is used in the manufacture of high-performance magnets, and is essential for electric vehicles and wind turbines, is a matter of worry, according to Poston, who voiced concerns about the political stability and human rights record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which is the world's leading producer of cobalt.
California's Mountain Pass, owned by MP Materials, remains the only integrated rare-earth mining facility in the US as it currently ships to China for refinement and final processing.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence claims that China refines almost 90% of the world's neodymium and praseodymium. Meanwhile, MP Materials has recently and finally begun processing rare earth minerals on its own, hoping to deliver to GM electric motor magnets by the end of this year.
Read more: Beijing to ban export of rare earth metals in response to sanctions
Brookings Institution scholar Michael O’Hanlon, a Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board member, told Sputnik that reserves in the US have declined 90% since the end of the Cold War, adding that it could "beef it up" as it struggles to establish diversified supply chains.
Pentagon's strategic materials team argues that the reserves' aim is to "decrease and preclude dependence upon foreign sources or single points of failure for strategic materials in times of national emergency."
47 commodities - including cobalt, platinum, palladium, iridium, and zinc, along with other base and precious metals are currently stored in the Defense Department.
