JPMorgan: An abrupt ban on Russian oil could increase prices
JPMorgan says an abrupt embargo on Russian crude would leave “neither room nor time to re-route [supplies] to China, India, or other potential substitute buyers.
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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon (Reuters)
In a note seen by Business Insider, JPMorgan said on Tuesday that the price of oil could rise if the European Union issues an abrupt ban on Russian crude from its markets. According to the investment bank, four million barrels of Russian oil would be displaced per day in the event of a full and immediate embargo, which will result in a rise to $185 a barrel for the benchmark Brent crude.
As per JPMorgan, a similar ban would leave “neither room nor time to re-route [supplies] to China, India, or other potential substitute buyers."
“In a slower phase-out, Russia would have more time to adjust its oil flows toward friendlier buyers and global ex-OPEC+ supply growth would have time to grow sufficiently to fill at least some of the Russia-sized hole in global oil supply,” it added.
The bank’s warning comes as the European Union considers a ban on Russian oil imports. If the EU ban were to be put in place over a 4-month period, prices would be unlikely to increase much higher than the present levels, as per the bank. Brent crude was trading up at $108.25 a barrel on Wednesday.
No alternative to Russian oil: OPEC
OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo warned EU ministers on Monday that current and future sanctions on Russia might cause one of the worst oil supply shocks in history, saying that it would be impossible to recover the volumes lost in such a scenario.
According to Barkindo, embargoes and other restrictions on Russian business are causing seven million barrels of Russian crude per day to leave the global market.
The OPEC official also informed the EU that the present market volatility is caused by "non-fundamental issues" outside of OPEC's control and that it is the EU's job to advocate a "realistic" approach to the energy transition.
The EU has declared preparations to join the United States and the United Kingdom in imposing an embargo on Russian energy products. However, unlike the United States and the United Kingdom, the European Union buys the majority of its energy supplies from Russia, and experts have warned that cutting off the supply may have disastrous consequences.
Germany, in particular, is bracing for the collapse of entire businesses, while the CEO of Austrian energy giant OMV has said that his country's decision to stop buying Russian gas would be "impossible."
