Oil overshadows dollar in light of market turbulence

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Oil prices saw an uptick Friday as the US dollar fell in daily trading, making crude oil cheaper for non-USD-using investors, and thus boosting the oil trade.

The hike in oil prices comes amid uncertainties about the next move to be taken by OPEC+ after ministers raised market uncertainties ahead of the upcoming meeting for the oil cartel.

International benchmark Brent crude traded at $76.40 per barrel at 06:56 am GMT, a 0.18% hike from the closing price of $76.26 a barrel in the last trading session it had.

Meanwhile, with a marginally higher increase, the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose 0.35% to sell at $72.08 after trading at $71.83 per barrel during the last session.

The dollar's loss of value is the main catalyzer of the rise of oil prices, as the USD index that measures the USD's value in comparison to various other currencies such as the British pound and Japanese yen declined 0.16% on Friday.

There are still risks for the USD, as credit rating agency Fitch on Wednesday placed the US' AAA rating on watch for a possible downgrade amid ongoing discussions on the country's debt limit.

However, Fitch underlined that it had faith that an agreement could be struck soon, noting that the risk the government would default on some commitments is on the rise.

Negotiations with the White House over raising the US debt limit are still stuck in light of diverging points of view on future spending plans, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said.

As Republicans and Democrats bicker about the future of the country's spending, commercial crude oil inventories in the US were on the decrease, with the inventories losing 12.5 million barrels, sending the reservoirs down to 455.2 million barrels. The drop was significantly higher than what the American Petroleum Institute expected, as it was only projected to decrease by 6.7 million barrels.

The market is still volatile pending a decision from the OPEC+ meeting as investor concerns increased due to conflicting statements made by Russia and Saudi Arabia, the organization's leading oil producers.

It is expected that the international cartel will decide on reducing its output once more in the coming week after Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman warned oil traders to tread carefully.

The conflicting statements start with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak hinting that OPEC+'s present production strategy will continue, declaring Thursday that production will continue when he declared that energy prices were approaching "economically justified" levels.

According to Novak, the price of Brent crude oil may rise over $80 per barrel by the end of the year, especially in light of an increase in demand over the summer, as well as OPEC+ output reductions.

"But I repeat once again: we do not have the task of inflating prices; there is the task of balancing in order to ensure the interests of both producers and consumers," the Russian top official stressed.

The US is growing frustrated with OPEC, and it was reported last week that the United States House of Representatives Judiciary Committee was considering a bill to put pressure on the OPEC oil producers' group to stop cutting output by revoking the sovereign immunity that had protected OPEC+ members and their national oil companies from price collusion lawsuits, James Durso of Oil Price said. The measure was previously approved by the committee in 2018, 2019, and 2021.

The OPEC Basket Price has been hovering around the mid-$70s, which is not historically high, though American politicians want to talk down gasoline prices before the summer driving season begins. (Saudi Arabia needs a price of $80.90 USD to balance its budget and finance economic diversification.)

If Americans are not outraged about gas prices, that could mean the US is reacting to a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia (mediated by China); Egypt and Iran beginning to normalize relations (mediated by Iraq); Syria rejoining the Arab League; the UAE and Iran in talks to strengthen ties; and the possibility of energy cooperation between Iraq and Iran.

In addition to a punishment for Arab OPEC members, the bill may be a message to others, for repairing relations with Iran and Syria under the guise of safeguarding American consumers. It also avoids a mention of the Biden administration's strategy of limiting oil and gas output, despite the fact that the government has recently permitted limited drilling on federal lands.

Meanwhile, as the US and its allies seeks to strangle Russia, the top oil producer in OPEC+, the latter stressed that it could maintain production capabilities at 10 to 11 million bpd, but the country will not expand its production to meet global demand amid sanctions on Moscow

Ten rounds of sanctions against various Russian industries have failed to strangle the Russian economy, which has managed to stay afloat. Russian productivity is thriving in a range of economic sectors, including the production of microchips, trucks, banknotes, chemicals, and luxury bags.

The Group of Seven wealthy nations and Australia have set price caps on Russian petroleum products and crude oil at $60 per barrel in coordination with the European Union.

In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to ban the sales of crude oil to countries abiding by the Western-led price cap on Russian oil. It also announced a production cut of 500,000 barrels per day while its allies in the OPEC+ group of oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, also agreed to slash output.