As dawn broke over Belem on Saturday, negotiators had already spent more than 12 tense hours in a windowless room, struggling to rescue COP30 from failure. Dozens of ministers from 17 blocs, representing the world’s richest and poorest nations, were urged by Brazil’s hosts to accept a compromise text drafted the previous day. Exhaustion and frustration were setting in, and many were preparing for the talks to fall apart.

The central dispute was fossil fuels. Despite over a century of scientific warnings linking carbon emissions to dangerous planetary warming, only one UN climate agreement, COP28 in Dubai, had ever directly acknowledged the need to shift away from coal, oil, and gas. Delegates from Russia, a coalition of 22 Arab nations, and several allies were adamant that such language would not reappear.

But many governments insisted that progress was long overdue and had rallied behind a plan gaining momentum throughout the summit. Meanwhile, developing countries were determined to secure increased funding to cope with worsening climate impacts.

By early morning, the mood was bleak. UK energy minister Ed Miliband said he was ready to walk out: “It was on the edge for us.”

The breakthrough came at around 6 am, when Miliband and EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra broke away for a private meeting with Saudi Arabia’s chief negotiator, Khalid Abuleif. They proposed wording that would reference the COP28 commitment to “transition away from fossil fuels” indirectly, by invoking the “UAE consensus” rather than mentioning oil, gas, and coal outright. Abuleif said he would consider it. Few held much hope.

'Belém political package'

An hour later, to widespread surprise, Saudi Arabia agreed. Relief swept the room, applause broke out, and the agreement, soon dubbed the “Belém political package," was sealed.

The deal represents another cautious step toward phasing out fossil fuels. It remains limited in scope: concrete plans to cut emissions to stay within the 1.5C heating threshold were deferred until next year, and the new roadmap on fossil fuel phaseout will be voluntary and led by Brazil.

Developing nations secured a tripling of adaptation finance to $120 billion annually, though delivery is not expected until 2035. Workers in high-carbon industries will be supported by a new “just transition mechanism” but contested language on “critical minerals”.

Limited ambition vs. cascading climate threats

The outcome reflected limited ambition in the face of cascading climate threats. “COP30 gave us baby steps in the right direction, but considering the scale of the crisis, it failed to rise to the moment,” Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa told The Guardian.

Observers pointed to political headwinds: a US administration absent from the talks and aligned with the fossil fuel sector, rising right-wing populism, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical conflicts from Gaza to Ukraine. Louise Hutchins of Make Polluters Pay said the summit nevertheless marked a turning point: “The climate arsonists, the fossil fuel giants, were finally in the crosshairs. The political space is open. Now we must turn it into a real fire escape.”

Yet the process also exposed the fragility of the global climate negotiation system. “COPs require consensus,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned. “And in a period of geopolitical divides, consensus is harder to reach. The gap between where we are and what science requires remains dangerously wide.”

Searching for a route forward

Many rallied around a roadmap concept, a structure that would guide countries toward fossil fuel phaseout without imposing obligations or timelines. Marina Silva, Brazil’s influential environment minister, had pushed the idea for months, calling on governments to show the courage to act.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva referenced the phaseout repeatedly, but internal divisions persisted.  Meanwhile, a coalition of pro-phaseout nations, from Colombia and Kenya to Nigeria, the Philippines, and Mongolia, grew steadily. The EU eventually joined forcefully in week two. More than 80 countries publicly demanded the roadmap in a dramatic joint statement. But the Brazilian presidency pushed back, insisting, without clear evidence, that an equal number opposed the plan.

Complicating matters, Tanzania claimed that all 54 African nations backed the Arab position, a statement that several African countries disputed.

Draft texts shifted dramatically through the week. A version containing phaseout language was replaced mid-week with one that removed it entirely. By Thursday night, 29 governments warned Brazil that they were close to walking out.

Late political trade

As tensions peaked in Belém, Lula was simultaneously attending G20 talks in Johannesburg, where he secured a crucial shift from the EU on adaptation finance. Developing nations had been demanding a tripling of annual public funding. Days earlier, the EU had dismissed the target; after Lula’s intervention, it reversed course. Though the $120 billion is still well below what scientists say is needed, campaigners called it one of the few bright spots.

The concession helped pave the way for Saudi Arabia to come back to the table. Reluctant to be blamed for a collapse, its negotiator finally accepted a compromise: a reference to the “UAE consensus” could remain in the final text.

Fragile path ahead

The result, legal wording that only indirectly refers to a fossil fuel transition and a non-binding process to develop a roadmap later, may seem underwhelming. Yet many involved believe the roadmap idea will now dominate future summits. If future COPs formally “welcome” or adopt the roadmap report, it could eventually gain legal weight.

“This conversation has become inevitable,” said Claudio Angelo of Observatorio do Clima. “We have to ride the wave now.”

Leo Roberts of E3G agreed: “A week before the summit, the idea of more than 80 countries calling for an organised global phaseout of fossil fuels was beyond optimistic. While a universal deal would have been the best outcome, the message from COP30 is unmistakable: more and more countries accept that this transition must be collectively managed.” 

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