Global temperatures are on course to rise by 2.6°C by the end of the century, as countries continue to submit climate pledges insufficient to curb fossil fuel emissions, which have reached record highs, according to two major reports.

The Climate Action Tracker update, released ahead of the COP30 talks in Belém, Brazil, found that governments’ new emission-cutting plans are failing to prevent dangerous global heating for the fourth consecutive year. The anticipated 2.6°C rise far exceeds the Paris Agreement targets and would thrust the world into a “catastrophic new era of extreme weather and severe hardships.”

A separate analysis from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) predicts fossil fuel emissions will rise by about 1% this year, although the rate of increase has slowed compared with previous decades. Coal, oil, and gas emissions grew by 0.8% annually over the past decade, down from 2% in the prior ten years. Renewable energy deployment is now close to meeting the world’s annual energy demand growth, but has yet to surpass it.

“A world at 2.6C means global disaster,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics. He warned that such warming could trigger tipping points, including the collapse of key Atlantic Ocean currents, loss of coral reefs, ice sheet deterioration, and the conversion of the Amazon rainforest to savannah. “That all means the end of agriculture in the UK and across Europe, drought and monsoon failure in Asia and Africa, lethal heat and humidity,” Hare added. “This is not a good place to be. You want to stay away from that.”

The planet has already warmed by approximately 1.3°C since the Industrial Revolution, driven by deforestation and fossil fuel burning, with impacts including fiercer storms, wildfires, and droughts.

US withdrawal from Paris Agreement blamed as climate pledges fall short

Despite the Paris Agreement’s requirement for countries to update their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), only about 100 nations have submitted new plans, most of which are insufficient to address the climate crisis. Including net zero commitments, the projected warming has worsened slightly to 2.2°C, largely due to the United States’ withdrawal from the agreement.

Donald Trump has repeatedly dismissed climate change as a “hoax”, rolled back domestic climate policies, and promoted increased oil and gas drilling. For the first time, the US did not send a delegation to a Cop summit.

Nonetheless, the global outlook has improved since the Paris deal, which had forecast 3.6°C of warming by 2100. This progress is attributed to the rapid deployment of clean energy and a decline in coal use, the most polluting fossil fuel.

The GCP also noted that weakened natural carbon sinks are exacerbating the crisis. Tropical forests in Southeast Asia and large parts of South America have shifted from absorbing CO2 to emitting it, due to a combination of warming and deforestation.

Ongoing global heating 'literally insane'

At COP30, the G77 nations plus China, representing roughly 80% of the global population, called for a just transition away from fossil fuels, though countries including Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway, the UK, and the EU did not endorse the move. Brazil has launched an investment fund to address deforestation, but key nations, including the UK, have yet to participate.

Former US Vice-President Al Gore urged delegates to act, calling ongoing global heating “literally insane". He said, “How long are we going to stand by and keep turning the thermostat up so that these sorts of events get even worse? We need to adapt as well as mitigate, but we also need to be realistic that if we allow this insanity to continue, to use the sky as an open sewer, that some things will be very difficult to adapt to.”

Prof Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia highlighted progress in some nations, saying, “We’re not yet in a situation where emissions are going down as rapidly as they need to to tackle climate change, but at the same time emissions are growing much less rapidly than before because of the extraordinary growth in renewable energy… It is clear that climate policy and actions work; we are able globally to bend these curves.” She noted that 35 countries, representing a quarter of global GDP, now have growing economies but declining emissions, including Australia, Jordan, South Korea, several European nations, and others.

CO2 levels are projected to reach 425ppm in 2025, up from 280ppm in preindustrial times. Analysts warn that this would have been 8ppm lower if natural carbon sinks had not weakened.

Romain Ioualalen of Oil Change International emphasized urgency, “The countries meeting at COP30 need to double down on renewable energy and start planning for an accelerated phaseout of fossil fuel production and use.”

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