Covid-like pandemic is 27.5% likely within the upcoming 10 years

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
14 Apr 2023 16:40

Airfinity Ltd, a pioneer in predictive health analytics, announces that vaccine rollouts in a timely manner could save a lot of lives in any anticipated pandemic.

A nurse draws from a vial of Johnson & Johnson coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine, in Los Angeles, California, US, March 25, 2021. (AP)

Airfinity Ltd. has revealed that there is a 27.5% chance that a covid-like pandemic could emerge within the next decade given that such viruses have become more likely to emerge more frequently. Rapid vaccine rollouts, the firm suggested, would be the key to reducing the total fatality rates.

According to the firm, climate change, expanding global travel, growing populations, and the threat posed by zoonotic illnesses, all add to the risk. It was noted that if effective vaccinations are made available 100 days following the discovery of a new virus, the odds of a lethal pandemic are diminished to 8.1%.

In the worst-case scenario, a bird flu virus that has the ability to mutate and thus allow human-to-human transmission may result in the death of up to 15,000 people in the UK in a single day, Airfinity explained.

With the globe already living with Covid-19, health professionals have decided to focus on preparing for the next major global hazard. Over the last two decades, three main coronaviruses that cause SARS, MERS, and Covid-19 have emerged, as has a swine flu pandemic in 2009.

The lack of licensed vaccines or treatments for several high-risk diseases, such as MERS and zika, as well as the likelihood that a new pandemic won't be discovered in a timely way under current surveillance practices underline the urgent need for pandemic preparation measures, according to the analytics firm.

World remains vulnerable to new devastating pandemic: US report

Nations around the world continue to be at risk from the emergence of a new pathogen that might spark a new disastrous pandemic, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said on March 9 in its Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community report.

"Countries globally remain vulnerable to the emergence or introduction of a novel pathogen that could cause a devastating new pandemic," the report said.

The fundamental causes for any possible disease outbreak are climate change, wildlife harvesting, deforestation, and human encroachment into formerly undisturbed habitats, the report said, adding that these causes are now on the rise.

The report also warned that if they spread globally or into new areas, emerging livestock and agricultural diseases and antimicrobial resistance pose serious economic damage and disruption to food supplies.