Superbugs are expected to kill more than 39 million people before 2050, a new global analysis revealed, highlighting that the older population is particularly at risk.

Drug resistance-related deaths have declined among young children due to improvements in vaccinations and hygiene, whereas the report found the opposite for older people.

Approximately 1.91 million people are expected to die worldwide each year by 2050 due to antimicrobial resistance (AMR), whereby bacteria evolve, resulting in drugs losing their effectiveness. This data shows a 1.14 million increase compared to 2021, while the AMR would contribute to 8.2 million deaths annually, up from 4.71 million.

Lancet's global analysis of AMR trends

Lancet published the study conducted by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) Project, the first global analysis of AMR trends over time.

Researchers analyzed data from 204 countries and territories to estimate death rates from 1990 to 2021, and forecasted trends up to 2050. Their findings indicate that millions of worldwide deaths could be prevented through improved prevention of infections, increased access to healthcare, and the development of new antibiotics.

“Antimicrobial medicines are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare, and increasing resistance to them is a major cause for concern," according to the study's author Dr Mohsen Naghai, from the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics (IHME).

“These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant global health threat for decades and that this threat is growing,” he added.

Death rate trends in age populations

The study involved over 500 researchers from various institutions around the globe, who found a "remarkable" decline in AMR-related deaths among children under the age of 5 between 1990 and 2022. The data showed the deaths reduced from 488,000 to 193,000, and are expected to halve again by 2050.

Although deaths from infections in young children are generally low, they are increasingly caused by drug-resistant bacteria. Meanwhile, the death tolls in all other age groups are rising. Specifically, AMR deaths among the over-70 group have surged by 80% within the last thirty years, and are expected to rise 146% by 2050, from 512,353 to 1.3 million.

Assistant professor at Croatia's University North and an affiliate associate professor at the IHME, Dr Tomislav Meštrović, said the trend reflects rapidly aging populations, with older individuals being more susceptible to infection.

“Approximately three-quarters of AMR infections are linked – for example, to hospital infections – and a rapidly ageing population also necessitates more hospital care,” he said. 

“For example, you put in an IV [intravenous] line, it gets infected, you get bacteria in the blood, that bacteria is likely to be more resistant,” the academic added.

Meštrović also emphasized that vaccinations are generally less effective in older people due to their immune system deteriorating with age, leaving them more vulnerable to reactions to antibiotics.

AMR deaths are lower in 2021 compared to 2019, the study revealed. However, researchers stated this temporary decline may most likely stem from COVID-19 measures.

According to the study's findings, the highest number of potential deaths is likely to occur in South Asian countries, such as India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, as well as in other regions of southern and eastern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

These areas have already experienced the highest growth in AMR and may benefit from enhancing overall infection care and expanding access to antibiotics.

World leaders are expected to meet in New York this month at the UN General Assembly, aiming to discuss AMR and reaffirm a political declaration of increasing action in combatting it in hopes of reducing deaths by 10% come 2030.