The recent spike in global beans prices could be the first sign that confirms the scientific threats of climate change affecting the price of coffee. 

Global Arabica coffee prices are expected to increase to $4.44/kg this year, according to IBISWorld, after a cold July in a major coffee-producing region of Brazil wiped out a third of the crop.

Tom Baker, the founder of Sydney-based Mr. Black Roasters and Distillers, noticed the increase in prices after receiving his first shipment this year.  

“The feeling was almost despair. We were expecting it because everything’s gone up. All our costs on every line item,” Baker said. “Glass, coffee, paper costs, label costs. It’s all gone up – and not just a small couple of percentages.”

Extreme weather conditions affect coffee supplies

Brazil, one of the world’s biggest suppliers of coffee beans, is suffering from severe weather conditions. 

Farmers in Brazil's coffee-producing regions have witnessed a string of droughts in recent years, and while frosts are normal in July and August, the suddenness and severity of the most recent event caught producers by surprise.

Freezing temperatures struck in late July, following an exceptional Antarctic front that resulted in snow dropping in the hills and frost spreading across coffee plants in Minas Gerais state's Cerrado Mineiro region. Such increasing volatility and frequency of extreme weather events in Brazil are attributed to climate change.

The main issue now is that rising temperatures will lower both humidity and rainfall, thus leading to more prolonged periods of drought. 

Since climate change is a known long-term risk to crops like coffee, chocolate, and wine grapes, which require specific conditions to thrive, coffee is in a dire situation, because as a tropical crop, its trees struggle in low temperatures and begin to die in sub-zero temperatures as ice particles “burn” their leaves. And because the growth of plants takes several years, any significant loss can threaten to knock out producers.