Japan faces unprecedented demographic challenges, recording a population drop in 2022, with the total number of Japanese people declining by nearly 800,000.

The figures released by Japan's internal affairs ministry have set two unwelcome records, signifying a crisis the nation is navigating into unknown territory, a path that many other countries are expected to follow.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has acknowledged the severity of the trend and vowed to tackle the situation. However, despite national policies, efforts to curb population decline have so far proven ineffective, with only some small towns showing modest progress.

Recent data shows that deaths in Japan reached a record high of over 1.56 million, while the number of births dropped to just 771,000 in 2022, marking the first time newborns fell below 800,000 since records began.

Despite an all-time high increase in foreign residents by more than 10% to 2.99 million, the overall population continues to slide for the 14th consecutive year, reaching 122.42 million in 2022.

Japan's rapidly aging population is impacting various aspects of society, with more than half of all municipalities designated as depopulated areas. Schools are closing, and over 1.2 million small businesses are left with owners around the age of 70 without successors.

The situation has prompted various measures, including the launch of the new Children and Families Agency and promises to double spending on childcare and allowances. However, past childcare and education subsidies have had little impact on the birthrate.

While approximately 300 small towns have seen a boost in births through incentives and child-friendly policies, the overall challenge remains substantial. Japan is not alone in experiencing declining birth rates, as the average fertility rate for wealthy nations in the OECD is 1.66, below the replacement rate of 2.1 required to maintain population numbers. 

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Japan's shrinking population is an obsession of the world, and even in Japan, the issue has raised so many alarms that one paper called for the declaration of a "declining birth-rate state of emergency."

However, the problem isn't unique to Japan, as the island country is to the fertility crisis what low-lying Pacific islands are to the environmental crisis (in terms of rising sea levels). They are both just an early signal of the problems that will affect others later on.

The first time Japan took notice of its low fertility rates was in 1989, when the country's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was found to be 1.57, much lower than the 2.1 needed for a population to sustain itself, according to a report by Bloomberg back in .

Moreover, despite three decades of effort, including task forces and government support program, little has changed, as Japan had a record low FTR of 1.26 in 2005, which it managed to raise to 1.3 in 2021. But Japan isn't the only country to suffer from this, as the phenomenon seems to be tied to an inverse relationship between wealth and fertility. 

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