'Israel' may be pushing limits because it feels weak: Foreign Affairs

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Foreign Affairs
6 Aug 2024 20:12
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"Israel's" actions are said to be partly driven by a desire to restore deterrence following the events of October 7, which severely undermined Israeli confidence and security assumptions.

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Iranians burn a representation of the Israeli flag during the funeral ceremony of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and his bodyguard who were killed in an assassination blamed on Israel on Wednesday, at Enqelab-e-Eslami (Islamic Revolution) Sq. in Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Aug. 1, 2024 (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

An op-ed published on the Foreign Affairs website on Tuesday detailed that the ten-month-old war on Gaza has escalated into a broader regional conflict, involving deadly clashes and attacks across the Middle East.

According to writer Dalia Dassa Kaye, the recent assassinations of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh by "Israel" have heightened fears of an expanded war.

"Israel's" actions are said to be partly driven by a desire to restore deterrence following the events of October 7, which severely undermined Israeli confidence and security assumptions.

"Israel may be pushing the limits in its regional actions not because it feels strong but because it feels weak," the Foreign Affairs author speculated.

Israeli self-reliant image shattered

The piece notes that "Israel" is now faced with internal challenges, including mistrust of the government, security failures, and domestic unrest, which are affecting its security.

It further recalled that Iran's retaliation in April has increased Israeli perceptions of vulnerability and the threat from Iran and its allies. Israelis speculate that "Israel's" enemies may now consider eliminating the regime to be a "realistic" objective.

It also argues that "Israel's" reliance on military force without a clear political strategy is unlikely to change regional dynamics or deter its adversaries effectively, as "Fundamentally, it is bringing little long-term strategic calculus to its decisions."

Despite what was described by the article as an Israeli admiration of the sophisticated and coordinated US-led defense that repelled the assault," the author said that such aid "also punctured the [Israeli] self-reliant image."

Israeli military leaders may not feel as comfortable as Americans do about depending on deterrence by denial, or persuading enemies that an attack will fail as happened following the April 14 attack.

According to these leaders cited by the Foreign Affairs article, the defense of "Israel" in April was not a complete success because, in the end, the defensive coalition only restricted the attack's damage rather than stopping it altogether. Israeli security decision-makers favor punishment as a means of deterrence, a strategy that would push escalation.

October 7 Shattered Israeli deterrence

When the author visited Tel Aviv in late June, they wrote security experts and former security and intelligence officials told him repeatedly that October 7 had disproved a lot of "Israel's" preconceived notions about its power.

Hamas’s October 7 attack dealt a devastating blow to the Israeli deterrence posture as it "shattered Israelis’ most basic assumptions: that their military and technological superiority could deter their adversaries," the author concluded.

In sum, "Israel's" survival depends on resolving its conflict with the Palestinians and achieving enduring peace, rather than relying solely on military actions, the writer speculates.

The author cited one security officer as saying that "Israel is not that strong," adding that many in the security establishment are now acknowledging this.

US diplomats fear assets won't protect 'Israel'

Multiple US officials told CNN earlier in the day that they expect Iran to retaliate in the coming days, perhaps within the next few hours, however, they struggle "to gauge when the response will come and what form it will take."

The American broadcaster said that Iran had already moved some of its military assets, needed for such an attack, in April, when it responded to an Israeli strike on its embassy in Syria.

According to two US officials, this makes it more difficult for American intelligence to predict Tehran's actions. This has created divisions among US national security officials, who have contradicting views on the aspects of the anticipated military response.