Any war between the Israeli occupation and Hezbollah is sure to end in mutually assured destruction on such a scale that Israel would be facing an existential threat, Israeli security, and military affairs expert Yossi Melman wrote in Haaretz.

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), he explained, is a strategic creed that goes back to the Cold War between the United States and the USSR and was based on creating a deterrence and a balance of power that prevents the outbreak of a full-fledged nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union. Practically, MAD says that if one country carries out a nuclear strike on another, the party who was first attacked would have enough nuclear weapons in their arsenal to retaliate against the attacker and thus would bring about mutually assured destruction.

The situation on the border area with Lebanon in the wake of October 7's Operation al-Aqsa Flood is a regional, conventional version of the MAD doctrine, Melman argued, though he noted that it would be very deadly because both the Israeli occupation and the Islamic Resistance have weapons systems capable of dealing paramount destruction to Israeli cities and both military and civilian infrastructure while also leaving hundreds of thousands of casualties.

Today, even while not in a state of all-out war, Hezbollah has launched thousands of missiles, anti-armor missiles, artillery shells, and drones toward all the settlements and kibbutzes alongside the border from Ras al-Naqoura to "Metula" while also bombing settlements that are further away from the border such as "Kiryat Shmona", Safad, and "Shlomi", leading tens of thousands of settlers to leave their settlement greatly damaged by the Resistance.

Hezbollah missiles to deal extensive damage

Hezbollah's missiles, he said, have struck numerous Israeli military bases within the Northern Command, including the "Meron" air traffic control base.

From the Israeli side of things, Melman noted that the occupation forces were carrying out very harsh operations in Lebanon, through airstrikes and drone attacks, artillery and missiles, and assassinations. All of this, he claimed has led to the destruction of a large number of Hezbollah bases and missile storages, and the killing of about 200 of its fighters.

However, Melman emphasizes that the "bitter truth" is that the damage to Hezbollah is not extensive, adding that its fighters retreated about 2 km from the border as a result of a deliberate decision taken by the Hezbollah leadership, not as a result of Israeli pressure, in order to reduce human losses since "Hezbollah is also sensitive about its human losses."

Meilman added that Hezbollah was learning lessons from the war on Gaza and is fighting a battle wherein it is calculating each one of its steps to refrain from risking its elite Radwan Force and preserving it in case the border skirmishes turn into a full-fledged war.

War would be terrible for 'Israel'

Melman warned that there were many voices in "Israel," whether among the public, the IOF, or officials, who believe that the Israeli occupation has no choice but to attack Lebanon when the war in Gaza ends. He pointed out that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Security Minister Yoav Galant, among others, support this militant approach, while some former security and military establishment officials oppose it.

Among the opponents, he said, are Ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, who, in the early days of the war on Gaza, prevented a decision by the War Cabinet calling on the Air Force to carry out a wide-scale attack on Lebanon.

Related News

IOF carry out wide-scale raids across West Bank towns

France summons US ambassador over 'antisemitism' letter

Melman dwells on "Israel's" demand to implement Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 July War on Lebanon; it has not abided by it, frequently violating Lebanese sovereignty, and continuing its air flights over Lebanon.

Melman warned that in the next war, Lebanon will suffer from paramount destruction, but "the destruction will be mutual." He added that he himself participated in recent years in numerous briefings for Chiefs of Staff and Home Front Commanders, who all painted a frightening picture of the destruction that Hezbollah could wreak in "Israel," as it possesses between 120,000 and 150,000 shells and rockets capable of reaching any point in "Israel," including "Eilat", its southernmost urban centre.

Lebanon not to suffer destruction alone

Melman reports that a few thousand of Hezbollah's missiles are precision-guided, which will be directed during the war, along with thousands of unguided rockets, at every airport in "Israel," whether civilian or military, at the Kirya (the headquarters of the Ministry of Security and the General Staff of the Israeli occupation forces), at the power stations in "Haifa" and Askalan, the railways, the industrial facilities in Bir el-Sabe, the nuclear reactors in "Soreq" and "Dimona", and almost every site that is of importance for the Israeli occupation.

The Israeli expert paints a frightening scenario in which Israeli settlements will be hit by thousands of projectiles, destroying thousands of housing units, and hundreds of thousands of settlers will be evacuated to hotels, stadiums, and tents, according to the scenarios provided by the Home Front Command.

Melman warned that the war against Hezbollah will turn into a war on multiple fronts. Rockets will be fired at "Israel" from Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and possibly Iran. There is also a great danger that the West Bank will ignite, and "Israel" will find itself in a war it has never seen before.

According to Melman, "Israel" must also take into account that a long-term war on several fronts will lead to difficulties in obtaining food and supplies, and will also undermine relations with allies, led by the United States.

Melman concludes his article by saying that this horror scenario is an embodiment of certain mutual destruction, therefore, everything must be done to prevent it from happening, and this is only possible through comprehensive international arrangements with the participation of the United States, the European Union, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and "moderate" Arab countries.

Former Mossad chief paints a realistic image

The former director of the Mossad, Major General (ret.) Danny Yatom said in an interview with Radio 103 FM that the Israeli occupation was in a state of stagnation on the northern front and was facing a problem that should not be hidden from the public: "Israel" is actually facing great difficulty fighting on two fronts, even though its security concept for many years has been (theoretically) that it was capable of fighting on two fronts at the same time and defending on a third front at the same time.

Yatom attributed this to the fact that the Israeli occupation forces are a small force and its organizational structures are not suited to the modern battlefield.

Yatom warned that a war with Hezbollah would be very problematic for the Israeli occupation and would be much more difficult than a conflict between an armed force and a state, because Hezbollah fighters are very difficult to identify and gather intelligence on, as they have hundreds of kilometers of tunnels under the ground between Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories.

Yatom said he did not know the level of readiness and preparedness of the occupation forces at present, but it must prepare well for a war in Lebanon. He pointed out that it does not matter whether the Israeli occupation wins the war, because the question is what will be the price of this victory? And to what extent will "Israel" be damaged on the front and domestically?

Yatom concluded his interview by expressing his hope that the Israeli occupation will not have to reach a situation where another front is opened with Lebanon against Hezbollah.

Hezbollah tunnels causing havoc in 'Israel'

Tal Beeri, the research director at the Alma Research and Education Center, said in an interview with Radio 104.5 FM that Hezbollah has been "building a very large network of tunnels under Lebanese territory" since the late 1980s. This network can be called the "Land of Tunnels in Lebanon."

Beeri added that these tunnels were divided into several types, including offensive tunnels, which are designed to cross the border fence and infiltrate the al-Jalil, and strategic tunnels, which are large in size and allow movement from one area to another. These strategic tunnels can extend up to hundreds of kilometers and allow the movement of vehicles and even medium-sized trucks.

Commenting on Beri's remarks, the journalist who interviewed him thanked him profusely for the information he provided in the interview, which she said caused her great panic.