• Israeli anti-government demonstrators raise flags and placards as they protest against moves by the Israeli government to dismiss Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara and the head of the internal security agency, Ronen Bar, at Habima Square in Tel Aviv, on March 27, 2025. (AFP)

"Israel" is in a state of unrestrained military action; it continues to engage in combat sporadically in Lebanon and Syria, persistently against the Palestinian Resistance in the West Bank, and once again, on an even larger scale, in Gaza, where a US-sponsored ceasefire has collapsed, The Economist reported on Thursday.

However, this time, "Israel" is waging war on its own terms with full US support. While this may suggest a return to security, its renewed military "supremacy" also carries the risk of overextension and internal strife, according to the report.

As the Israeli government presses ahead, it faces the danger of "turning hubris into disaster," it added.

The Economist argued that "Israel’s" security situation has been "remarkable", as since the October 7, 2023, attacks, it has severely weakened Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon through military action.

In addition, the report said that Iran’s influence across the Middle East has been significantly diminished, as its allies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria have suffered setbacks. With American assistance, "Israel" has repelled two large-scale Iranian missile strikes and attacked Iran’s air defenses.

Consequences of Israeli policies

However, according to the report, the Israeli government has drawn two concerning conclusions from these "successes". First, it appears to believe that cruel measures are effective. Having killed tens of thousands of civilians in Gaza, it has again restricted aid and cut off essential services—actions that may constitute violations of international law.

The report noted that "Israel" is preparing for a renewed occupation in Gaza as part of what could become a large-scale ground operation, while proposals for ethnic cleansing gain traction. Emboldened by President Donald Trump’s vision of a US "takeover" and the resettlement of Gaza’s population, the Israeli government has approved the establishment of an agency to facilitate the "voluntary" departure of Palestinians.

Since last year, "Israel" has also engaged in a rapid de facto "annexation" of the West Bank, expanding settlements, forcibly displacing tens of thousands of Palestinians, and allowing violent settler attacks to go unchecked. Momentum is growing for formal annexation, the report highlighted.

According to The Economist, the second conclusion drawn by the Israeli government is that, following the collapse of deterrence on October 7, it is working to ensure its security by creating buffer zones and striking perceived threats preemptively. The Israeli military is targeting Lebanon, and rather than allowing the new government in Damascus a chance to stabilize Syria, it is carrying out airstrikes on Syrian territory.

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The same rationale could prompt a preemptive attack on Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons, the report pointed out.

Risks of military overreach and political fragility

The Economist highlighted that this trajectory poses significant risks for "Israel"—regionally, in its relations with the Palestinians, and domestically. In the region, "Israel" may struggle to sustain military superiority if it overextends its forces. It relies on a citizen army of reservists, who are called upon in times of crisis. These soldiers, with families and businesses to manage, cannot sustain indefinite mobilization.

Additionally, "Israel" remains dependent on US military backing. However, Trump is an unreliable ally, particularly if a potential war with Iran becomes prolonged. Even if his support persists, the Democrats could return to power in 2029, and they are likely to be far less tolerant of "annexation".

Meanwhile, as "Israel’s" repeated strikes across the region fuel popular resentment, Arab leaders may increasingly align with public hostility, potentially jeopardizing "Israel’s" regional alliances, including its ties with Egypt, Jordan, and the states that signed the normalization accords.

Regarding the Palestinians, The Economist emphasized that "Israel" cannot simply erase their aspirations for statehood. In the aftermath of October 7, most Israelis oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state or granting full citizenship to Palestinians within "Israel". However, the alternatives are bleak.

Formal "annexation" of Palestinian territories would inevitably lead to either the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians, the creation of a population with no full rights, or the further confinement of Palestinians into fragmented, nonviable enclaves, the report warned.

Internal divisions and 'democratic backsliding'

Nonetheless, the report underscored that the greatest strain from overextension may come from within "Israel" itself. It mentioned that October 7 could have been a unifying moment in "Israel", yet divisions have resurfaced. A majority of Israelis support negotiations with Hamas and a withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza to secure the release of remaining captives. Many believe that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is prolonging the war to appease the far-right factions that sustain his fragile government. In addition, growing numbers of reservists question whether they are fighting in "Israel's" interest or merely serving the agenda of a politically influential minority.

At the same time, The Economist observes, the Israeli government is displaying troubling tendencies toward "democratic backsliding". It is aggressively seeking to weaken the independence of state institutions. Recently, the cabinet endorsed the dismissal of the head of Shin Bet, "Israel’s" domestic security agency, and the attorney general—both decisions met with fierce opposition. Notably, both officials are involved in investigations into corruption allegations against Netanyahu’s aides.

But at the core of "Israel’s" crisis is a campaign led by extremist Zionists who seek to reshape the state based on their vision—one that includes sovereignty over the West Bank, the report indicated.

The Economist said that "Israel" may appear strong, but its military is fatigued, and its political landscape is fractured. Meanwhile, its most dynamic economic sector—technology—remains highly mobile. Even before October 7, tech professionals frustrated by political instability and the erosion of democratic norms had threatened to relocate abroad. If these concerns persist, they may follow through.

For years, "Israel" has relied on the US to impose limits on its military actions, but with Trump in the White House, that restraint is absent, the report concluded.

Read more: 'Israel' on the brink of civil war, Gantz warns against amendments