Nine months into his return to office, US President Donald Trump continues to insist that US inflation is no longer a concern. “Prices are ‘WAY DOWN’ in the USA,” he declared on social media in August, asserting that inflation is “virtually over.”

But a new Harris Poll conducted for The Guardian suggests a stark contrast between the administration's rhetoric and the lived reality of most Americans.

According to the survey, 74% of Americans say their monthly household expenses have increased by at least $100 since last year, with some reporting hikes as high as $749. The increase in costs spans across political affiliations, with Democrats, Republicans, and independents all acknowledging a significant rise in living expenses.

The latest inflation data shows a decline from 3% annually in January 2025 to 2.9% by August. While far below the 9% peak recorded in 2022, the current rate still exceeds the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Read more: Economists warn global inflation will remain high for years: Bloomberg

Economic pessimism grows across political lines

Despite marginal improvements in the inflation rate, economic pessimism is rising. The Harris Poll found that 54% of US citizens believe the country is in a recession, up from 49% a year ago, and 53% feel the economy is worsening.

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These figures show a shift, particularly among independent voters, who were more aligned with Republicans last year. In 2020, independents favored Joe Biden by 9%. By 2024, they were split between Biden and Trump, with recent polling now indicating growing discontent with both parties.

When asked what’s driving price hikes, partisan divisions emerged. 45% of Republicans attributed cost increases to standard annual inflation, while only 22% of Democrats agreed. Instead, 55% of Democrats and independents blamed current government policies.

Economists from the Yale Budget Lab also point to Trump’s tariffs, estimating they are adding an average of $2,300 annually to household costs, roughly $191 per month.

Surprisingly, independents were just as likely as Democrats to cite tariffs as a contributing factor, indicating growing awareness of their economic impact. Only about 20% of respondents from all groups blamed corporations for overcharging to increase profits.

Read more: US economy shows warning signs of stagflation return, Trump to blame

Midterm outlook: voter support for policies, not parties

With the midterm elections in 2026 approaching, the poll suggests a disconnect between voter dissatisfaction and partisan loyalty. While support for Democratic economic policies remains high, overall optimism for the party is waning.

Optimism for Democrats fell from 37% in 2024 to 25% now, while pessimism rose to 39%. Republican optimism held steady at just over 30%, but internal support among Republican voters (60%) continues to outpace Democrats (42%).

Among independents, pessimism toward both major parties is nearly equal, 43% for Republicans and 41% for Democrats.

Yet when it comes to specific policies, Democrats maintain the edge. A federal ban on price gouging, proposed by Kamala Harris during the 2024 campaign, remains the most popular idea, with 45% saying it would strengthen the economy. Trump’s most supported policy, eliminating taxes on Social Security, garnered 43% support.

Other Trump-backed policies, such as mass deportation (24%), tax cuts (22%), and new tariffs (22%), ranked among the least popular.