Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vows to win back Istanbul as the people are due to vote next Sunday in the ongoing local elections, particularly after the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP)'s Ekrem Imamoglu took over the town hall. 

The CHP also has a hold on the capital Ankara and keeps power in the port city of Izmir, both losses for Erdogan, who has assigned former Environment Minister Murat Kurum to run for mayor of Istanbul in the March 31 polls.

Ankara... Canım başkentim Ankara!

Sana Gerçek Belediyecilik yakışır, sana eser ve hizmet siyaseti yakışır Ankara! 🇹🇷 pic.twitter.com/EzxNtBHwzY

— Erdoğan Dijital Medya (@RTEdijital) March 23, 2024

Imamoglu is the CHP's best bet as they hope to win back the presidency from Erdogan's AKP in the next round of presidential elections in 2028.

Erdogan will remain president of Turkey until 2028 after winning 52,10% of the vote, giving him an entire decade in power after he originally became president in 2014.

Anthony Skinner, director of research at geopolitical advisory firm Marlow Global, told AFP, "Imamoglu is an effective political operator and at this point in time represents one of the very few glimmers of hope for constituents who oppose Erdogan and the AKP."

This comes amid a divided opposition front, which, unlike the previous election, could pave Erdogan's way to winning back the last elections' losses.

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"The underperformance of the political opposition at the May 2023 elections demonstrated its failure to effectively challenge the political status quo, and, by extension the resilience and resourcefulness of Erdogan," Skinner added.

Istanbul is the 'gateway to the world'

Erdogan is leading the AKP campaign and uses broadcasts daily on television, while the opposition candidates use social media instead. 

For now, the AKP's failure to get inflation of 67% under control could hurt chances of candidate Kurum's chances of winning Istanbul, but a major rally in Istanbul is due to be held by Erdogan hoping to unite Kurum supporters.

Berk Esen, an associate professor at Istanbul's Sabanci University, illustrated Istanbul as "the biggest prize in Turkish politics" and said Istanbul was crucial for the President, who said that the current local elections would be his last.

"Obviously, this is his city... But it goes beyond that", Esen said, noting that "Istanbul is a city with enormous municipal resources that provides services to 16 million citizens."

On March 31, 2024, Turks will head to the polls for the second time to elect municipalities' mayors and councilors, marking the thirteenth session of the Turkish local elections since its inception in 1963.#TurkeyElections pic.twitter.com/MUQdS2a229

— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) March 24, 2024

Erman Bakirci from Konda polling company claimed that "Imamoglu is ahead" in Istanbul and that there could be "a gap between the polls and the actual election results."

Meanwhile, Osman Nuri Kabaktepe, head of the AKP's Istanbul branch, relayed to AFP that Istanbul's significance lies in it being "our gateway to the world" as he compared it to New York and Berlin.

Political communications expert Eren Aksoyoglu stated that in Ankara, CHP mayor Mansur Yavas seems to be in the lead, but "a very tight race" could play out, adding that AKP's nationalist allies are "putting all their weight into the battle."