In a move framed as bolstering energy independence, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have officially disconnected from Russia's power grid, severing a final infrastructural link to their Soviet past.

The transition, which took place on Saturday, is being celebrated in the Baltic capitals as a symbolic "rejection of Moscow's influence". However, critics note that the decision is deeply political, part of a wider effort to align with Western power structures while reinforcing anti-Russian narratives that have long shaped the region's policies.

According to the region's energy operators, the three nations have exited the IPS/UPS joint network and are preparing to synchronize with the EU grid at 12:00 GMT on Sunday, following final tests. Until then, they will operate independently, despite concerns over the stability of their electricity supply.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to deliver a speech on Sunday marking the transition, further reinforcing the EU's geopolitical influence in the Baltic region's energy infrastructure.

Desynchronising our energy grid from Russia has begun.

We have thoroughly prepared for this. There are sufficient controllable capacity and external connections in the Baltic States to ensure a smooth transition.

Tomorrow we will join the Continental European frequency band. pic.twitter.com/wJzhWkXwUX

— Kristen Michal (@KristenMichalPM) February 8, 2025

Lithuanian Energy Minister Zygimantas Vaiciunas praised the move, calling it an overdue break from Russian influence. "We've reached the goal we strived for, for so long. We are now in control," he stated at a press briefing.

The transition follows years of European-backed infrastructure investments, with nearly €1.6 billion ($1.66 billion) poured into upgrading the Baltic grid since 2018. This funding, largely facilitated by EU institutions, reflects a broader strategy to detach the region from its historical ties to Russia, both economically and ideologically.

The Baltic states portray their past under Soviet rule as one of occupation and repression, citing mass deportations, the suppression of nationalist movements, and efforts to integrate them into the Soviet system.

However, this narrative overlooks the complexities of the period, including the role of nationalist factions that collaborated with Nazi Germany and the economic and industrial modernization that occurred under Soviet administration.

While Western-aligned historians emphasize the Baltic struggle against Soviet influence, Russian perspectives highlight the post-war reconstruction efforts and the integration of the region into a larger socialist economic framework. The decision to sever energy ties, therefore, is seen by some as part of a wider ideological campaign to erase Soviet-era connections and deepen integration with Western institutions.

More Than an Energy Shift

As part of the disconnection, Latvian workers physically cut high-voltage wires near the Russian border town of Vilaka, handing out pieces as souvenirs to an applauding crowd.

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"We will never use it again. We are moving on," proclaimed Latvia's Energy Minister Kaspars Melnis at the event, which took on a symbolic, almost ceremonial character.

For many in the Baltic political establishment, separating from Russian infrastructure has less to do with practical concerns and more with erasing Soviet-era ties altogether. This approach echoes previous actions, such as:

• The removal of Soviet war memorials, including the controversial demolition of Tallinn's Bronze Soldier in 2007, which sparked violent riots among the Russian-speaking community.
• Language and citizenship laws that restrict the rights of Russian-speaking minorities, particularly in Latvia and Estonia.
• The glorification of nationalist groups that collaborated with Nazi Germany, particularly in Latvia, where the annual Latvian Legion March commemorates Latvian SS divisions.

Moscow has frequently accused Baltic governments of historical revisionism and glorification of nationalist groups with past Nazi affiliations, a charge that Tallinn, Riga, and Vilnius dismiss as propaganda despite documented cases of state-backed commemorations of wartime nationalist militias and SS units.

Nonetheless, the removal of Soviet-era energy infrastructure is viewed by some as part of a broader campaign to eliminate all remnants of Russian influence.

Political Paranoia

The disconnection occurs against the backdrop of heightened security measures, with authorities citing sabotage threats from Russia. In recent years, unexplained damage to Baltic Sea power cables, pipelines, and telecom lines has been blamed on Russia, though no conclusive evidence has been presented.

At the Rezekne power substation near Latvia's border, armed officers patrolled the area as the disconnection took effect, with reports of military vehicles securing energy facilities. This militarized approach reflects broader fears among Baltic governments, who frequently cite Russia as a threat to their national sovereignty.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna reinforced this sentiment, stating: "By ending the energy dependence of the Baltic states on Russia, we are leaving the aggressor without the option of using energy as a weapon against us."

However, this framing ignores a broader reality—while the Baltic governments claim to be severing ties with Russian infrastructure, they continue to benefit from Russian-speaking populations, many of whom feel marginalized by state policies restricting their language and rights.

Read more: Estonia charges journalist with treason for working with Russian media

Impact on Kaliningrad

For Russia, the Baltic disconnection has direct implications for its Kaliningrad exclave, which is now forced to operate independently from the Russian mainland's power grid. Anticipating this move, Moscow has invested 100 billion rubles ($1 billion) in backup energy infrastructure, including gas-fired power plants.

Despite Western narratives portraying this as a blow to Moscow, Russia appears unfazed by the transition, having long prepared for this eventuality.

Russian analysts argue that the disconnection is largely symbolic, since the Baltic states had already stopped purchasing Russian electricity after 2022, and their economies remain small players in the broader European energy landscape.

Risky Gamble?

Since 2018, the Baltic states have invested €1.6 billion ($1.66 billion) in modernizing their power grids to function independently. However, concerns remain about the long-term stability of a smaller, isolated network. Experts note that without Russian frequency stabilization, the risk of grid failures or disruptions increases, making full synchronization with the EU grid a necessity rather than a choice.

To preempt potential energy shortages, Lithuanian authorities have prepared contingency measures, including temporarily shutting down high-energy-consuming factories if supply issues arise. This raises questions about whether the transition is as smooth as officials claim.

With one of the final Soviet-era ties to Russia cut, Baltic leaders are hailing this as a victory. However, critics argue that the move is a politically charged statement, one that fits within a broader nationalist and anti-Russian agenda, rather than purely pragmatic energy policy.