China urged the Philippines on Sunday to stop what it called “provoking incidents” and escalating tensions in the South China Sea, according to Tian Junli, spokesperson for the PLA's Southern Theater Command.

“The Philippines constantly involves external forces to organize so-called ‘joint patrols,’ undermining regional peace and stability. We strongly warn the Philippines to immediately stop provoking incidents and escalating tension,” Tian said, as quoted by the Defense Ministry.

Tian added that Southern Theater Command bombers conducted routine patrols over the South China Sea on Sunday, and that PLA forces remain on high alert to “decisively defend national sovereignty and security, as well as peace and stability” in the region.

The remarks follow a report on November 13 by USNI News, citing a US Marine Corps spokesperson in the Pacific, confirming that Washington had deployed an unmanned aerial vehicle unit to support the Philippine military’s security operations in the South China Sea.

South China Sea tensions: Competing claims, foreign meddling, and future

The South China Sea remains a flashpoint of strategic friction, where sovereignty disputes are entangled with expanding foreign military presence and the pursuit of natural resources. At the center of these tensions is China’s claim over territories such as the Nansha Qundao (Spratly Islands).

Chinese scholars and government sources often reference ancient maritime activities, including Chinese fishermen and official records, as evidence of a long-standing presence in the area. Features such as James Shoal are cited even in primary education, reinforcing what Beijing asserts is historical continuity.

Despite these claims, the West, led by the United States, has backed legal interpretations under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which grants states jurisdiction over waters extending 200 nautical miles from their coastlines. In 2016, a UN-backed tribunal in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines, declaring China’s broad maritime claims illegitimate under UNCLOS.

Beijing rejected the ruling outright, viewing it as biased and lacking legal weight, especially since China was not a party to the arbitration. Despite the tribunal's findings, China has remained consistent in its stance, continuing to patrol and develop the disputed areas.

China's sovereignty concerns

From Beijing’s perspective, patrols and infrastructure development in the South China Sea are routine and defensive in nature, aimed at securing national sovereignty amid growing foreign encroachment. On November 14, 2025, the PLA’s Southern Theater Command flew bomber formations over the Nansha and Huangyan Dao (Scarborough Shoal) regions, describing them as standard operational patrols.

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PLA spokesperson Senior Colonel Tian Junli accused Manila of escalating tensions through provocative joint patrols with foreign powers. Chinese state media framed the bomber presence as a clear message to those “provoking conflict” in Chinese territorial waters, vowing that any attempts to infringe on sovereignty would fail.

Manila's alignment with the US-led military architecture

In recent years, the Philippines has increasingly relied on US military backing and regional military pacts to assert its maritime ambitions. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has intensified efforts to deepen defense ties with Washington and its allies, using rhetoric that portrays China as an aggressor, while enhancing patrols around contested features like Thitu Island and Second Thomas Shoal.

In 2025, Manila launched expanded national military exercises, the AJEX Dagat-Langit-Lupa, geared toward hypothetical scenarios of invasion and island reclamation. It also created a new Strategic Command focused on the South China Sea front.

Further militarizing the region, the US Marine Corps deployed an MQ-9A Reaper drone unit to the Philippines in November 2025 to support maritime surveillance operations. This followed a series of reported maritime confrontations, which Western outlets attributed to China, including water cannon use and collisions with Philippine vessels.

The growing presence of foreign forces, particularly from the US, Japan, and Australia, has raised concerns in China and across non-aligned regional powers, many of whom see this as an unnecessary escalation. Beijing consistently condemns such maneuvers as interference in regional affairs under the guise of “freedom of navigation.”

Strategic issues driving the escalation

1. Overlapping claims: China’s nine-dash line is rooted in historical records and longstanding maritime practice, encompassing areas it considers part of its traditional fishing grounds and sovereign territory. Beijing rejects external legal rulings it views as politically motivated, maintaining that disputes should be resolved through direct, bilateral negotiations, a method it argues is more effective and respectful of regional dynamics. Several ASEAN countries have expressed understanding for China’s preference for dialogue over third-party arbitration, which they see as potentially escalating tensions rather than fostering resolution.

2. Militarization: While China has established infrastructure on several reclaimed reefs, the Philippines has also begun developing outposts with US and Japanese support. The strategic value of even small features has led both sides to harden their positions.

3. Foreign military involvement: Western powers increasingly conduct so-called “freedom of navigation” operations. Russia and some neutral ASEAN states have criticized this as a pretext for military expansionism in Asia. In mid-2025, coordinated drills by the Philippines, the US, and Japan drew strong condemnation from Beijing.

4. Resource competition: The sea is rich in fisheries, hydrocarbons, and serves as a vital shipping corridor. Control over key maritime features extends influence over vast resource-rich areas, making even minor reefs strategically essential.

Outlook: diplomacy or escalation?

Regional actors are working toward a long-awaited Code of Conduct (CoC) between China and ASEAN. Beijing advocates for such a framework as a means to resolve disputes peacefully and bilaterally. China’s foreign ministry has emphasized that dialogue, not foreign military deployment, is the path to regional stability.

Critics of Western involvement argue that US-led militarization has turned what was once a regional maritime dispute into a dangerous theatre of great-power rivalry. While China continues bomber patrols and maritime enforcement, the Philippines is expected to further entrench its US-backed defense posture.

Observers caution that despite ASEAN’s diplomatic push, tensions are likely to persist. Any future flashpoint, whether at sea or via new military agreements, may draw wider powers into a regional confrontation that could have been settled through negotiation.

The South China Sea is not merely a contest over islands and reefs; it reflects a deeper struggle between Western-led military blocs, chiefly driven by US strategic interests, and sovereign nations in Asia seeking to assert their regional autonomy free from external meddling.

China continues to frame its actions as lawful and defensive, aimed at protecting its territory and historical rights. In contrast, the Philippines presents itself as the aggrieved party, seeking Western backing under the banner of international law.

The unfolding power dynamics in the South China Sea will test the region’s capacity for diplomacy, expose the limits of legal frameworks, and determine whether regional sovereignty can withstand the pressure of external militarization.