CIA does not know if 'Israel' plans to bomb Iran: The Intercept

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In a report published by The Intercept, a piece of a top-secret intelligence dossier released earlier this year on the platform Discord describes "Israel's" rising probability of aggressing against Iran over its peaceful nuclear program may be just saber-rattling or something more serious. The ambiguity about the intentions of one of the US' closest friends calls into question the Biden administration's "ironclad" support for "Israel."

The revelation, initially reported by the Israeli i24 News and later published by DDoSecrets, a group that releases hacked information, details an undisclosed military exercise undertaken by "Israel," according to The Intercept. "On 20 February, "Israel" conducted a large-scale air exercise," according to an intelligence report released on February 23 by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

The report, discussed by The Intercept, explains that the exercise was “probably to simulate a strike on Iran’s nuclear program, and possibly to demonstrate "Israel's" resolve to act against Tehran.” There have been several joint US-Israeli military exercises in recent months, including one proudly billed by the Pentagon as the largest “in history.” 

“CIA does not know Israel’s near-term plans and intentions,” the report adds, speculating that “Netanyahu probably calculates Israel will need to strike Iran to deter its nuclear program and faces a declining military capability to set back Iran’s enrichment program," as reported by The Intercept. 

Read next: 'Israel' must prepare for Iran war without US help: Former advisor

The fact that United States' top intelligence agency said that it had no idea how seriously to take the increasingly bombastic Israeli threats to Tehran, Biden has not ruled out a unilateral Israeli assault on Iran, and his national security advisor has recently hinted at his approval, The Intercept reported. 

“We have made clear to Iran that it can never be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon,” Jake Sullivan said in a speech earlier this month, reiterating the administration’s oft-repeated line. The rhetoric reflects what military planners call “strategic ambiguity,” a policy of intentional uncertainty in order to deter an adversary — in this case, around how far the US might go to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. But Sullivan went a step further, adding, “As President Biden has repeatedly reaffirmed, he will take the actions that are necessary to stand by this statement, including by recognizing "Israel’s" freedom of action.” 

US could be playing with fire

As reported by The Intercept, Sullivan’s statement represents the strongest signal yet that the administration would not oppose unilateral action by "Israel." The rhetoric has also been echoed by other administration officials. In February, the US ambassador to "Israel," Tom Nides, said that “'Israel' can and should do whatever they need to deal with [Iran] and we’ve got their back.” 

“In the current context this constitutes glibness,” said Paul Pillar, a retired national intelligence officer for the near east, of Sullivan’s statement. Pillar is now a senior fellow at Georgetown’s Center for Security Studies. “I believe the administration is playing with fire with this kind of rhetoric and with the joint military planning.”

Axios reported last week that the US recently proposed cooperating with "Israel" on joint military planning around Iran, but denied they would plan to strike Iran’s nuclear program, according to The Intercept. 

“Biden has dangerously shifted America’s policy on Israeli military action against Iran,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told The Intercept.

Read next: Diplomacy between Saudi Arabia, Iran could isolate 'Israel'

“Previous administrations made it crystal clear to "Israel" – including publicly – that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program would be destabilizing, would not prevent a nuclear Iran, and would likely drag the US into a war it could do well without.

"Israel’s" own military officials concede that an attack on Iran would likely metastasize into a broader regional war. Earlier this month, retired Israeli Defense Forces Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi reportedly said that “Israel might have to deal with the Iranian nuclear program,” adding that “this will mean an Israeli attack on Iran which will probably result in a regional war.”

What is Juniper Oak? 

In January, just weeks before the secret Israeli exercise referenced in the intelligence report, the US and "Israel" conducted what the Defense Department touted as their largest joint military exercise in history, according to The Intercept. The exercise, Juniper Oak, involved “electronic attack, suppression of enemy air defenses, strike coordination and reconnaissance,” which experts said “are exactly what the US and Israel would need to conduct a successful kinetic attack on Iran’s nuclear program."

The report adds that the unprecedented practice was made possible by President Donald Trump's unnoticed directive just days before Biden's inauguration. Trump, as commander-in-chief of the armed forces, directed that "Israel" be transferred from European Command's area of responsibility, where it had been stationed since 1983 to avoid friction with its Middle Eastern neighbors, to Central Command, the Pentagon's Middle East combatant command.

Are there grounds for a possible attack? 

CENTCOM, whose domain includes Iran, has, nevertheless, continued to work closely with "Israel" under Biden. In a Senate testimony in March, Biden's CENTCOM chief, Gen. Michael Kurilla, stated that moving "Israel" from EUCOM to CENTCOM "immediately and profoundly altered the nature and texture of many of CENTCOM's partnerships."

CENTCOM announced the deployment of a guided missile-armed submarine in the Mediterranean Sea in April. This was most certainly a warning to Iran, which promptly responded by accusing the United States of "warmongering."

Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder indicated on May 9 that the military would increase patrols in the Strait of Hormuz, which numerous Iranian vessels pass through. Ryder also mentioned the P-8 Poseidon aircraft and its role in enhancing maritime surveillance in the area in his remarks.

Read next: US military to participate in Israeli simulated attack on Iran

According to The Intercept, the same plane made international headlines in 2019 when Iran revealed that it nearly shot down a P-8 carrying US service members that it claimed had breached its territory, instead electing to shoot down a nearby drone.

The newsletter added that the US military scrambled jets to strike Iran in retaliation, only to be called off 10 minutes before the attack by Trump after a general informed him that the strikes would most likely kill 150 people. Trump claimed that the strikes would not have been "proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone."