Did an Israeli Iron Dome missile cause the Majdal Shams massacre?
7 Min Read
The Majdal Shams strike resulted in the tragic loss of 12 lives, all natives of the occupied Golan. What insights can we recover from the evidence gathered following yesterday's incident?
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Residents gather with authorities at a football field that was struck by a projectile, killing multiple children, in the occupied Arab Syrian town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, on July 27, 2024. (AP)
Israeli regime authorities claimed on Saturday afternoon that Hezbollah launched a rocket at the occupied town of Majdal Shams, killing twelve civilians, including 10 children, in the process.
The Israeli military command even specified the type of rocket artillery shell used in the alleged attack, which it claimed was the Falaq-1 rocket.
On the other hand, the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon - Hezbollah fully denied any involvement and responsibility for a deadly strike on the village in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan.
💥 A resident of Majdal Shams was filming a missile launched from an Iron Dome platform, expecting it to intercept another missile. He exclaimed, "Follow it, follow it!" Then, surprised, he questioned, "Where is it... where is it?" Finally, expressing his shock and regret, he… pic.twitter.com/NC7wDeDGLm
— IntelSky (@Intel_Sky) July 28, 2024
So where does the truth lie?
A brief analysis of the impact site and the video capturing the moment of the strike dismantles the Israeli narrative, bolstering Hezbollah's account.
A few points must be made clear before analyzing the moment of the strike on Majdal Shams and the aftermath caused by the explosion.
First, Israeli officials said the Israeli occupation forces were able to identify the shell used in the attack as the Falaq-1 rocket, reportedly confirming their suspicions.
The Falaq-1 rocket is a rocket artillery shell with the following specifications:
- 240 mm caliber
- 1320 mm length
- Estimated 10 km range
- Maximum flight ceiling of 3.5 km
- 50 kg high explosive warhead
- Solid-propellant rocket
Second, high-explosive warheads usually contain a mixture of explosives alongside components that would act as shrapnel propelled by the pressure caused by the aforementioned explosives. Following the moment of impact with the surface, a crater should be formed.
The size of this crater varies according to several factors, which include the mass of the explosives, the pressure generated by the warhead into the ground, and the surface's composition, among other elements.
Third, the Falaq rocket exhausts the solid propellant less than two seconds after being fired.
Read more: Lebanon's Jumblatt urges unity as 'Israel' tries to sow discord
Israeli Iron Dome interceptors record multiple failures since October
Another important nuance that would aid Hezbollah's denial of involvement is the failure of Iron Dome interceptors, Tamir surface-to-air missiles, on several occasions in the past months.
This includes a crash of an Iron Dome interceptor in Tel Aviv in early December 2023 and a fire caused by an Israeli interceptor in occupied al-Jalil following a failed interception of a Hezbollah drone on July 25, 2024.
كثرت الأعطال في معترضات التامير مع كثرة الاستعمال و استهلاك الصواريخ المخزنة، يظهر آخرها بالفيديو ادناه، المعترض انطلق عاموديا بزاوية ٩٠ درجة، وعاد إلى الأرض فيما يبدو أنه سقوط حر.
— METT (@METT_Project) July 25, 2024
الاعطال حصلت في:
-رادار التوجيه (الارضي).
-الباحث الراداري في الصاروخ نفسه.
-حساس التدمير الذاتي. pic.twitter.com/Gst5Gc7LRG
There are many such incidents, with some being captured live on camera, including an event in which an Israeli Tamir missile struck a hospital in Tel Aviv on November 6, 2023.
بتاريخ 6 تشرين الثاني (نوفمبر) 2023... صاروخ قبة حديدية يفشل في التصدي لصواريخ القسام ويسقط قرب مستشفى في تل أبيب pic.twitter.com/Rf1zku6u0c
— Thaer | ثـائــر 🇱🇧 (@eldorrthaerleb) July 27, 2024
Several technical issues related to an Iron Dome battery could result in a catastrophic interception failure. These issues include a malfunctioning engagement radar, a faulty radar seeker, a defective self-detonation sensor, and a compromised motor, among other potential problems. The most dangerous of these are faults in self-detonating sensors, which leave operators unable to destroy rogue surface-to-air missiles.
Did an Israeli Tamir missile impact Majdal Shams?
It is highly probable that faults in a surface-to-air missile fired from an Iron Dome launcher just behind Majdal Shams caused the grave massacre.
Majdal Shams, which is among the towns and cities occupied by "Israel" in 1967, hosts a vast majority of Arab Syrian Druze and a minority of Israeli settlers. The town and other similar demographics, where natives are significantly represented, have not come under the direct fire of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon since October 8, 2023.
Although the Resistance has launched highly precise weapons such as an anti-tank guided missile and drones at Israeli military positions in towns such as Arab al-Aramshe, it never fired unguided rocket artillery weapons at these towns.
Specifically, Majdal Shams has never come under an attack by Hezbollah, throughout the nearly 300 days of intense confrontations near the Lebanese-Palestinian border.
The Resistance has also not been shy of taking responsibility for mishaps in the past, such as an incident in the 2006 war on Lebanon when a rocket launched by Hezbollah fighters impacted a home in occupied al-Nasirah.
The attack took place on July 19, 2006, and the Secretary-General of Hezbollah Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah took the nearest opportunity amid the ongoing war to apologize to the family.
"To the family that was hit in al-Nasirah — on my behalf and my brothers', I apologize to this family," he said.
"Some events like that happen. In any event, those who were killed in al-Nasirah, we consider them martyrs for Palestine and martyrs for the nation. I pay my condolences to them."
A corresponding crater
As for evidence collected from the impact site, the crater formed by the projectile is around 2 meters wide and a few centimeters deep. This indicates that the warhead that detonated in the area is far less than 50 kg and closer to the 10 kg range.
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The crater formed by an explosive projectile in the Majdal Shams football field, in the occupied Syrian Golan, on July 27, 2024 (Social media)
In comparison, a crater formed by a Falaq-1 rocket in Kiryat Shmona ripped through cement and caused extensive damage to nearby infrastructure as seen in the video below.
A strike in Kiryat Shmona pic.twitter.com/2E6nn7F9GL
— Royal Intel 👑 (@RoyalIntel_) May 24, 2024
The Falaq-1 rocket is among Hezbollah's heaviest rocket artillery shells that can be fired from multiple rocket launchers and which can cause extensive damage to targets.
On the other hand, the crater seen in Majdal Shams could be more closely attributed to a Tamir missile.
The possibility that Hezbollah used a smaller caliber munition to conduct the attack is improbable, as it was Israeli authorities who claimed that the munition used in the attack was a Falaq-1 rocket.
Large flames produced by liquid propellant
Another aspect to examine is the relatively large amount of combustion that occurred as a result of the impact on the football field.
High-explosive warheads generally do not produce large fireballs upon detonation. Instead, they create a powerful blast wave and intense fragmentation. The explosion of an HE warhead primarily generates heat, shock waves, and shrapnel rather than a visible fireball. A large-sized and visible fireball is typically associated with the combustion of fuel, such as that found in rocket engines or fuel tanks.
🚨BREAKING: The moment of Hezbollah’s strike, in Majdal Shams, Northern occupied Golan Heights.
— Suppressed News. (@SuppressedNws) July 27, 2024
So far it resulted in 7 israeli ‘Druze’ dead and 21 injured pic.twitter.com/A5UY94YWyx
As seen in this footage, the projectile produced a large fireball.
A Tamir missile launched from a nearby position is likely to contain a substantial amount of fuel, as the air defense rocket was designed to fly for around 70 km. This means that the majority of the fuel meant for the missile's flight after take-off detonated and produced the fireball seen in the video.
Despite Israeli assertions of a Hezbollah attack using a Falaq-1 rocket, substantial analysis points towards a malfunctioning Israeli Tamir interceptor missile as the more plausible cause of the explosion. The discrepancies in crater size, the nature of the explosion, and Hezbollah's historical targeting patterns all support this alternative explanation. The true story behind the Majdal Shams explosion remains shrouded, but the evidence presented here offers a compelling case for reconsidering the initial narrative.
Read more: 'Israel' will come to end if it wages war on Lebanon: Hezbollah MP
