If Knesset elections were held today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party would see its representation drop by two seats, leaving it with 21, while Otzma Yehudit, led by former Police Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, would gain ground, rising to nine seats, according to a poll published by the Israeli newspaper Maariv.

The poll results reflect the political aftermath of Ben-Gvir and Otzma Yehudit's withdrawal from the government in protest of the recent Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement with the Palestinian Resistance.

The National Unity Party, led by Benny Gantz, would gain one seat, bringing its total to 18, the same number projected for Yisrael Beiteinu. Meanwhile, Yesh Atid is forecasted to secure 13 seats. The Religious Zionism party, under Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, would narrowly surpass the electoral threshold with four seats. However, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar would fail to return to the Knesset, despite slight gains.

If elections were held today, the poll predicts the following seat distribution:

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1. Likud: 21
2. National Unity: 18
3. Yisrael Beiteinu: 18
4. Yesh Atid: 13
5. The Democrats (Labor and Meretz): 12
6. Shas: 10
7. Otzma Yehudit: 9
8. United Torah Judaism: 7
9. United Arab List: 5
10. Hadash-Ta’al: 5
11. Religious Zionism: 4
12. Gideon Sa’ar’s party: 0 (2% vote share).

In terms of bloc dynamics, Netanyahu’s coalition would receive 51 seats, while the opposition would secure 59 seats, with Arab parties collectively holding 10 seats. This balance suggests the opposition would need support from Arab parties or defections from Netanyahu’s coalition to form a government.

The poll also examined a hypothetical scenario involving a new party led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Such a party would command 27 seats, significantly altering the political landscape. Likud would drop to 19 seats, Yesh Atid to 9, and both Smotrich and Sa’ar would fail to meet the electoral threshold. In this scenario, Bennett’s coalition would grow to 67 seats, while Netanyahu’s bloc would shrink to 43.

The survey found that 62% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should resign, including 18% of Likud voters, citing his responsibility for the failures of October 7. Conversely, 29% oppose his resignation and 9% remain undecided.

On the topic of the prisoner exchange deal, only 28% of Israelis are confident it will be fully implemented, while 39% doubt its completion, and 33% refrained from expressing an opinion. Opposition voters showed greater optimism, with 34% believing the deal would succeed, compared to the pessimism of 42% of coalition voters.

Among those skeptical about the deal’s success, 74% blame Hamas, 21% hold "Israel" accountable, and 5% cite other reasons or declined to respond. A closer look reveals that 88% of coalition voters blame Hamas, compared to 64% of opposition voters. Meanwhile, 34% of opposition voters attribute the failure to "Israel", a view shared by only 9% of coalition voters.

Read more: Most Israelis support full implementation of Gaza ceasefire deal