Prison governors in England and Wales have been cautioned that by the second week of July, jails will be so overcrowded that they will struggle to accommodate any more inmates, creating an immediate crisis for the incoming UK government, The Guardian reported on Thursday.

HM Prison and Probation Service officials informed prison heads in England and Wales earlier this month that data indicates an “operational capacity breaking point” will be reached just days after the general election on July 4.

The news website suggested that the development will likely trigger Operation Early Dawn, a crisis measure that permits offenders to be housed in police cells when prisons are full, and may also lead magistrates' courts to delay cases. These measures complement a temporary government scheme that allows prisoners to be released up to 70 days early.

Legal challenges may hinder further overcrowding

"We understand that we will no longer be able to receive prisoners from court in the second to third week of July. It is not an exact science – but it is very soon after the election," stated Tom Wheatley, president of the Prison Governors Association.

He noted that "this position was projected some time ago," indicating that "the outgoing government did not take the necessary action in a timely fashion to avoid this."

Wheatley added that any attempt to further overcrowd prisons beyond their operational capacity could face legal challenges, saying, "If a new government arrives and says: ‘We want more people in,’ it would be challenged in court by the PGA because ministers would be placing our members at risk."

According to The Guardian, Operation Early Dawn is typically used for very short periods, usually no longer than a week, to manage immediate, localized pressures on the prison estate

It enhances coordination between police stations, the Prison Service, and the courts to ensure that no one is taken to court unless the Prison Service can guarantee a space for them if they are remanded.

The latest figures released by the Ministry of Justice on 14 June showed that the usable capacity in prisons across England and Wales was 88,815, while the population was 87,347.

Operation Early Dawn was triggered in May in London and northeast England before being rolled out across the country due to concerns over prison overcrowding. During the same month, police were also instructed to consider making fewer arrests due to the lack of space in prisons.

Officials have also developed plans to reduce the time served by prisoners from the current halfway point in their sentences to about 43%.

The Guardian noted that the Conservative party has laid aside its pledge to ensure that most sentences under 12 months should be suspended and served in the community, rather than in prison. This proposal was part of the sentencing bill introduced during the last session of parliament, but its progress stalled when a group of right-wing Tory MPs opposed the policy.

The news website cited Labour insiders as saying that the party would push through planning permission for new prisons but have not specified how they would address the immediate overcrowding crisis, noting they lacked access to government data but were aware of the "brutal inheritance" they face, given that the party is widely expected to form the next UK government.

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