Several EU capitals are pressing Brussels to avoid retaliating against Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs, choosing instead to prioritize stability ahead of the NATO summit scheduled for June 24–25 in The Hague.

Officials told the Financial Times that European governments prefer to wait until after the summit before making decisions on issues that could escalate tensions with Washington, including trade and defense procurement.

NATO officials are calling for a streamlined agenda to reduce the risk of provocation, knowing that Trump’s demands and rhetoric could overshadow broader alliance goals if not carefully managed.

EU to target US cars, planes, bourbon unless deal reached

The European Union is preparing to impose extra tariffs on €95 billion ($108 billion) worth of U.S. exports if trade talks with President Donald Trump’s administration do not lead to a satisfactory agreement, Bloomberg reported. 

These proposed countermeasures would mainly affect industrial products, including Boeing Co. aircraft, American-made automobiles, and bourbon, which had previously been excluded from an earlier list. The plan will undergo consultations with EU member states and stakeholders until June 10 and may be revised before becoming final.

This week, the European Commission is initiating talks with the US, with the aim of finding an amicable solution to Trump’s tariff push. Officials from the Commission plan to present Washington with a range of options that could potentially be formalized, including proposals to reduce trade and regulatory barriers and to increase investment in the US.

So far, the discussions have yielded limited progress, and it is anticipated that most of the US tariffs will remain in place. The EU stated this week that Trump’s ongoing trade probes could raise the total value of EU goods facing new US duties to €549 billion.

Nonetheless, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that the EU “remains fully committed to finding negotiated outcomes with the US.”

“We believe there are good deals to be made for the benefit of consumers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic,” she said in a statement. “At the same time, we continue preparing for all possibilities, and the consultation launched today will help guide us in this necessary work.”

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Public declarations of retaliation over tariffs shelved

Meanwhile, public declarations of retaliation over tariffs have been shelved, defense spending decisions are on hold to avoid forcing a choice between American and European suppliers, and criticism of US positions on Ukraine or speculative ideas like buying Greenland is being avoided.

As one senior EU official quoted by FT explained, “There is a great deal of nervousness ahead of The Hague, and the general thinking is to do whatever we can to get [Trump] there, tell him what he wants to hear, and get him out again without any disaster.”

Despite NATO and the EU operating as separate institutions, the fact that 23 countries hold membership in both means their actions often require coordination. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have reportedly been in close contact to ensure aligned messaging ahead of the gathering.

According to US officials, Trump’s attendance remains conditional. He expects all 31 alliance members to agree in advance on raising defense spending and commit to greater responsibility for European security. Absent such commitments, Trump could cancel his participation at the last moment, adding further pressure to already tense planning.

Trump’s demands on European defense spending

Donald Trump is pushing NATO allies to commit 5% of GDP to defense, far above current levels. He is also urging them to craft a strategy for assuming full responsibility over continental security, thereby challenging Europe’s reliance on US military protection.

These demands have placed immediate pressure on NATO to present a realistic plan that reflects its members’ evolving capabilities. A detailed NATO review is now underway, aiming to assess each member state's defense readiness and map out potential scenarios for a gradual US military drawdown. 

European officials, in private conversations, believe that a combined increase in spending, approaching 4% of GDP across member states, paired with US cooperation on structured withdrawals, could make a full transition feasible within five to ten years. 

The urgency of this task stems from the possibility of a repeat of past disruptions, such as during the 2018 NATO summit, when Trump shocked allies by threatening to pull the US out of the alliance. Leaders, including then-Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, were forced into emergency talks and pledges to maintain unity.

Past tensions, outlook for 2025 NATO Summit

The 2025 NATO summit is expected to be one of the most consequential in recent history. Memories of the chaotic 2018 summit remain vivid for European leaders, many of whom still view Trump as an unpredictable factor capable of derailing even well-orchestrated diplomatic efforts.

His past threats to withdraw the US from NATO, combined with a focus on transactional diplomacy, have left member states on edge.

As the summit nears, officials are working to craft a strategy that speaks directly to Trump’s demands while protecting NATO’s core structure. “Money, money, money,” one European diplomat involved in preparations told the FT. “[Trump] doesn’t want to talk about anything else, and [additional topics] can wait.”

This approach may come at a cost. Policy areas that once occupied a central role, such as Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, strategic cooperation with Asian allies, and climate change, are likely to be downplayed in favor of discussions centered almost exclusively on spending and burden-sharing.

Europe must prepare for the possibility that the US will scale back its role in the alliance. “Europe should prepare for the US washing its hands of Europe,” Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski said on Wednesday. “It's a doable task. There is a path towards it... But we can't pretend we are not hearing what the Americans are telling us.”