The European Union is weighing a move to advance Moldova’s accession process ahead of Ukraine for the first time, with a key procedural step potentially coming before Moldova’s parliamentary elections in late September, Politico reported.

According to three diplomats and an EU official cited by Politico, EU member states could vote early next month to open Moldova’s first “negotiating cluster” after a meeting of EU ministers, a key legal milestone on its path toward joining the bloc.

The move would deliver a significant political boost to President Maia Sandu, whose party is running on a pro-EU agenda and facing active Russian efforts to sway the electoral outcome.

“A way needs to be found to open the first cluster,” said Siegfried Muresan, a conservative EU lawmaker and chair of the EU-Moldova Association Committee in the European Parliament. “It would send a signal to Russia. It would take away the argument for the narrative of the Russians, which is to say that there is no progress on the path to EU membership.”

Wrong signal to Ukrainians?

However, progressing with Moldova while leaving Ukraine’s candidacy on hold could spark frustration in Kiev, as both countries have advanced their EU bids in parallel since receiving candidate status from the European Council in 2023.

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“There is a danger here of sending the wrong signal to Ukrainians,” a Ukrainian diplomat warned. “At a time when future peace is being discussed in Alaska, we need to keep the perspective of EU membership as strong as possible.”

The European Commission confirmed that both Moldova and Ukraine have completed the reforms needed to open a first negotiating cluster. “There is no objective reason to block Cluster 1,” a Commission spokesperson stated in an emailed response.

Political implications

Ukraine’s progress remains stalled due to opposition from Hungary, whose prime minister, Viktor Orban, has made resisting Kiev's EU accession a central theme in his reelection campaign.

While Moldova could receive unanimous approval from all 27 EU member states to open negotiations at the Sept. 1 informal General Affairs Council, Ukraine is unlikely to secure such a consensus.

This situation has placed pro-enlargement states, including Denmark, which currently holds the EU presidency, in a difficult position, as per the report. Maintaining the linkage between Moldova and Ukraine’s candidacies would block both from advancing, while allowing Moldova to proceed before the Sept. 28 vote could send a strong pro-EU message domestically but risk alienating Ukrainians.

Potential shifts ahead

An EU diplomat familiar with the talks told Politico that various measures are being explored to demonstrate progress for Ukraine without formally opening a cluster, such as granting access to the Horizon Europe research program or the Erasmus student exchange scheme.

“There are a lot of things we can do to bring Ukraine closer to Europe in other ways than the formal negotiation procedure,” the diplomat noted. “The key thing is to keep pushing forward and make clear that Hungary’s opposition is not seen as legitimate, and that the real carrot is the end of the process.”

Officials cautioned that the dynamics could change quickly, particularly in light of the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.

If the two leaders reach an agreement that includes Ukraine’s EU accession as a critical element, Trump could pressure Orban to drop his objections to Kiev’s membership bid.