US President Donald Trump has claimed he believes Vladimir Putin is prepared to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, as the two leaders prepare to meet in Alaska on Friday. But his suggestion that Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky could “divvy things up” may unsettle Kiev.

The US president estimated there was a 75% chance the Alaska talks would succeed, adding that the pressure of economic sanctions may have made the Russian leader more open to a settlement.

Trump stressed he would not allow Putin to gain the upper hand, telling reporters, “I am president, and he’s not going to mess around with me. I’ll know within the first two minutes, three minutes, four minutes or five minutes … whether or not we’re going to have a good meeting or a bad meeting. And if it’s a bad meeting, it’ll end very quickly, and if it’s a good meeting, we’re going to end up getting peace in the pretty near future.”

He added that a second, as-yet unconfirmed meeting involving himself, Putin, and Zelensky would likely be the decisive one. “The second meeting is going to be very, very important, because that’s going to be a meeting where they make a deal. And I don’t want to use the word ‘divvy’ things up, but you know, to a certain extent, it’s not a bad term, OK?” he told Fox News Radio.

Trump appeared to be referring to potential “land swaps”, in practice, ceding Ukrainian territory to Russia, possibly including areas not currently under Russian control.

Later on Thursday, he suggested that such a trilateral meeting could take place soon, potentially also in Alaska. “Tomorrow, all I want to do is set the table for the next meeting, which should happen shortly. I’d like to see it actually happen, maybe in Alaska,” he said.

Trump acknowledged he was unsure whether an immediate ceasefire could be reached but said, “I believe now, he’s convinced that he’s going to make a deal. I think he’s going to, and we’re going to find out.”

Zelensky faces precarious political predicament

Zelensky may face a difficult decision if Putin refuses Kiev’s demand for a full 30-day ceasefire and offers only a partial halt in hostilities, particularly if Trump still wishes to proceed with a three-way meeting.

The Ukrainian leader spent Thursday in London, discussing Wednesday’s video call with European leaders and Trump with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. European officials were broadly reassured by the conversation, but remain wary of Trump’s unpredictability and tendency to act on instinct rather than follow a script.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said shifting battlefield conditions could complicate any peace effort. “To achieve a peace, I think we all recognise that there’ll have to be some conversation about security guarantees,” he said.

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Trump has previously rejected offering such guarantees, but Rubio said European-led assurances might be possible. He added that Trump had spoken to Putin by phone four times and “felt it was important to now speak to him in person and look him in the eye and figure out what was possible and what isn’t.”

Starmer and Zelensky met for breakfast at Downing Street on Thursday and hailed “a visible chance for peace,” provided that Putin was serious about ending the war.

European leaders came away from Wednesday’s discussions reassured that Trump’s priority in Alaska would be securing a durable ceasefire from Putin, rather than negotiating without Ukraine’s involvement.

Wider context

Plans for Trump and Putin to hold a joint press conference after their talks suggest the White House is optimistic about a breakthrough. Moscow, however, wants the summit to address not only Ukraine but also steps to revive US-Russian economic cooperation.

A Downing Street summary said Starmer and Zelensky expressed cautious optimism about a truce “as long as Putin takes action to prove he is serious” about peace. 

On Wednesday, Starmer co-chaired a virtual meeting of the “coalition of the willing”, a European-led initiative to deploy a peacekeeping force to Ukraine in support of any deal, saying there was a “viable” chance of a truce.

On Thursday, the prime minister embraced Zelensky outside No 10 in a public show of solidarity, echoing displays following their tense February White House meeting, when Trump and Zelensky clashed in front of the cameras.

Starmer said further sanctions could be imposed if Moscow failed to engage, and confirmed the UK was already preparing its next package of measures.

Trump has long said he can only gauge the prospects for peace by meeting Putin directly. He downplayed expectations for Friday’s talks but warned there would be “very severe consequences” for Russia if Putin refused to agree to a ceasefire, a veiled threat to escalate US sanctions on Russian oil exports.

Although he has so far refrained from such measures, the US is set to impose new tariffs on Indian imports later this month as punishment for New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil. The UK would prefer Washington to consider more targeted sanctions, such as on Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers or on refineries using Russian crude.

Moscow, however, has indicated it wants the Alaska summit to yield agreements on renewed US-Russian economic cooperation, which could ease pressure on its finances.

Some European leaders were encouraged by US Vice-President JD Vance’s detailed grasp of the issues during Wednesday’s call, and by signs that Trump might be willing to contribute US assets to a European-led security guarantee for Ukraine if a deal is reached.

The summit is scheduled to begin at 11:30 am local time (8:30 pm BST) with a one-on-one meeting between Trump and Putin, followed by wider discussions.

The Russian delegation will include Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, Russian sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev, and foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov.