Europe is finished, but Europeans deluded: Ex-French ambassador to US
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France's former Ambassador to Washington says that the future of humankind will be decided elsewhere and not in Europe.
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Flag of the European Union flying outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels on May 5, 2021. (AFP)
Europeans must come to terms with the fact that the "small continent" is not the key power they once thought it was. Rather, despite their belief, Europe's period of true dominance was just a "blip in history," the former French Ambassador to the United States concluded in an article published by the UK's The Telegraph.
Once convinced that the continent was a central player in shaping the current world order, Europeans assumed the role of lecturers and pushed their values onto other countries, which they believed were "universal principles".
They perceived themselves as "noble and powerful," Gerard Araud said.
While it is true that Europe took command of the world world between 1815 and 1945, since then, its influence has taken a backseat to the United States. The two-century rule is just "a comma in the history of the world."
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Between 1650 and 1750, the GDP of India and China was larger than any European country. In that sense, the two Asian powers saw Europe as the "upstart" while it was in its era of full dominance. But today, as economic rebalancing is taking place and shifting to Asia again, Europeans are being put "back in their place."
Gerard recalled when former US President Barack Obama said in 2016 that he believed that the global future would be decided between New Delhi, Beijing, and Los Angeles.
According to the former diplomat, this forecast underscored Europe's diminishing influence and its transition to the sidelines, a position increasingly accepted by emerging powers.
During his term as France's envoy to Washington, Gerard said that he witnessed how the United States viewed Europe "with a mixture of indifference, fatigue and neglect."
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"We were the old aunt whose rambling utterances were more or less gently ignored."
For the United States, the main challenges and the anticipated growth is in Asia, he continued, which explains their pivot towards the region.
Washington does not consider Russia as its main threat, he said, which is why Americans want to end the war in Ukraine as soon as possible to "face the real threat: China."
"Are we Europeans able to prove that we still matter, that we are not just some peripheral touristic destination," he questions, expressing his doubt that this remains the case.
Demography is destiny
Central to Europe's evolving role is its demographic landscape, Gerard said, noting that he witnessed France's power decline in parallel with its demographic downfall.
"On this basis, Europe is facing an unprecedented situation."
Projections indicate a 5% decline in Europe's total population between 2010 and 2050, with a more pronounced 17% drop among those aged 25 to 64, he stated.
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Furthermore, Hungary, the Baltic States, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Portugal, Italy, and Greece are already recording shrinking populations, and Germany is on the way. Compared to the age median in the United States 38, the continent has an average of 42.
This demographic shift carries tangible consequences. With a dwindling workforce, Europe faces reduced demand and subsequently slower economic growth.
But the more serious ramification is the following: The "European Model" is in jeopardy; societies will grapple with intergenerational tensions as the elderly, enjoying the benefits of the welfare state, outnumber the working-age population.
"Old age means ever-growing spending on health and personal assistance." Therefore, younger generations will never be able to experience the standard of living enjoyed by their elders.
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Humankind's future not decided in Europe
As Europe is witnessing continued demographic decline, and given the failure of the continent's policies to encourage reproduction, Gerard said, citing experts, that the only solution to this crisis is receiving more immigrants.
Yet, Europe's reaction to this proposition is marked by hesitancy and resistance, especially with the rise of far-right parties across the continent, he continued.
A stark consequence of Europe's demographic reality is the emigration of its educated youth to countries with better prospects, notably the US.
"We are losing young, highly educated individuals who go mainly to the US, where they will have better opportunities," Gerard said recalling his interactions with youth while still ambassador to the United States.
"Every signal is pointing towards an inward-looking Europe," the French official said.
"The future of humankind will be definitely decided elsewhere."
