In a recent Foreign Affairs analysis, Justin Logan, the director of Defense and Foreign Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, and Joshua Shifrinson, associate professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy and nonresident senior fellow at the Cato Institute, examined the evolution of US policy toward Europe.

They highlighted that for decades, Washington's strategy remained consistent: maintaining a strong presence through NATO and acting as the primary security provider, while European NATO members followed US leadership.

However, the analysts noted a significant shift in this consensus, particularly within the Republican party. This change is exemplified by Donald Trump's comments criticizing "delinquent" NATO countries, asserting, "If they’re not going to pay, we’re not going to protect."

This reflects a departure from the traditional US approach to European security.

Preventing European hegemony remains constant goal

The writers observed that while the United States remains committed to Europe, this support is increasingly tied to European countries meeting their financial obligations. In reaction to this shift, Democrats have strengthened their stance.

President Joe Biden has reiterated the Democratic Party's "sacred" commitment to European defense and celebrated the addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO as a significant achievement of his administration. Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, has consistently aligned with Biden's position, signaling no change in the party's approach.

The analysts argue that a debate over the US role in Europe is overdue, but they believe both sides have misrepresented the key issues and interests. They assert that the United States' core interest in Europe has remained unchanged since at least the early 1900s, allegedly preventing any single power from dominating the continent's economic and military landscape. Historically, this has meant thwarting the rise of a European hegemon in the presence of a US one.

Today, however, Europe lacks a clear candidate for hegemony, and the successful US efforts since 1945 to rebuild and stabilize Western Europe make the emergence of a new hegemonic threat unlikely, as per the piece.

The analysts contended that the United States should recognize its success in achieving its alleged fundamental goal in Europe: thwarting any single nation's attempt to dominate the continent. The US, as per the analysts, should advocate for a strategic shift that includes reducing the US military footprint in Europe, transitioning NATO responsibilities to a more European-led model, and reallocating primary responsibility for regional security to the European nations themselves.

Read more: EU leaders worried Trump's re-election heralds NATO collapse: NYT