Former US gen. on Ukraine war: 'Better to negotiate now than later'

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The most recent military aid package to Kiev last month, approved by Washington, included “older and less advanced” systems, which “may indicate that battlefield consumption rates have outpaced production to a point where excess inventories provided to Ukraine are nearly exhausted,” retired US Army brigadier general Mark T. Kimmitt pointed out in his article on Thursday for the Wall Street Journal. 

The "dwindling stocks of leading-edge weapon systems” in NATO countries indicate a probably prolonged conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Such a scenario could result in “more pressure from supporting nations, sustained inflation, less heating gas, and falling popular support” in the West, Kimmitt commented.

Having served as an assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs in 2008-09, Kimmitt noted four methods to speed up the resolution of the conflict, which has now marked six months, with the first choice being to “dig deeper” into NATO stockpiles and send weapons to Kiev. These weapons have already been withheld by members due to their own national defense requirements, which according to Kimmitt is something EU countries may be willing to do as it’s “better to use these weapons in Kherson than Krakow”. 

The retired general suggested that the US and its EU allies could also try boosting manufacturing of the systems requested by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as a second choice, while acknowledging that such a move would not likely have an instant and direct effect on the situation on the ground. Stepping up the conflict by providing Ukraine with longer-range systems, like ATACM missiles, F-16 jets, and Patriots, and expanding "the rules of engagement to attack targets in Crimea and possibly Russia,” could be a third option according to Kimmitt. However, he advised that such an escalation would most certainly face a “response from Moscow” and create the risk of conflict spilling into Europe.

Kimmitt further provides a fourth and final solution, which is for Ukraine to “push for an interim diplomatic resolution without (or with) territorial concessions,” adding that “there is little incentive to negotiate” momentarily, but insisted that Zelensky “must recognize that diminishing resupplies would have a disastrous effect on his army, not merely for battlefield operations but for the message of declining outside support it would send to the people of Ukraine". 

“Beginning the diplomatic resolution would be distasteful, and perhaps seen as defeatist, but as there is little chance of climbing out of the current morass, it may be better to negotiate now than later,” the retired general said.

Ukraine and Russia haven’t convened at the negotiating table since talks in Istanbul in late March as  Moscow, which had initially been optimistic about the possibilities in the peace process, accused Kiev of retreating on all the progress and said it had lost trust in the Ukrainian negotiators. Russian officials warned that Moscow’s demands would be more extensive if talks were to resume.

The initiative now lies with Kiev, but so far Ukraine's leadership has made it obvious that it is hesitant to begin the process, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who indicated on Sunday that Moscow is prepared to resume full-scale negotiations with Kiev.