France, Germany rift expanding over Ukraine
Seven months into the Russian military operation in Ukraine, the political impasse between the major EU countries is widening after the war has directly affected people's economic conditions.
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Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky (center) with, from left, Italy’s former PM Mario Draghi, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Romanian President Klaus Johannis in Kiev in June
Senior EU officials admit that there will most likely be a "crunch point" in the fall or early winter when EU countries begin to feel acute domestic economic pain as a result of the crisis, while also being asked to dig even deeper into their pockets and offer more military resources to support Ukraine's economy and efforts in the war.
In preparation for the challenges ahead, many leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have begun warning their populations that the Ukraine conflict will last for months and that the domestic consequences that are being felt now are only the beginning.
While #Western sanctions on #Russia are still backfiring on #European countries, #Britons struggle to enjoy their holidays and are forced to cancel trips or even sell their cars as petrol prices hit the roof pic.twitter.com/5zZeKAdABM
— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) August 2, 2022
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For example, Macron said that France will continue to support Ukraine with military, financial, and humanitarian aid until “victory” has been achieved on terms acceptable to Kiev.
But behind these public statements of support for Ukraine lies a tug-of-war between Germany, France, and — before Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s downfall — Italy on the one hand, and Poland, the Baltics, and Nordics on the other.
Silent dispute
France and Germany remain concerned about what a Ukrainian victory might entail, and whether the war can be won without an escalation involving NATO more directly, or Russia's use of unconventional weapons.
As a result, a distinction must be made between what is said in public and what Macron, Scholz, and the most senior people around them are thinking privately.
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However, as long as the US supports Ukraine, Berlin and Paris are expected to publicly contradict the position of the bloc's "hawkish" Central and Eastern European member countries.
What does that mean?
They won't be able or willing to push for a diplomatic solution this year, or even next. However, differences of opinion will influence how far and how quickly they, and thus the EU, will progress.
This will be most evident in the debate over Russian sanctions, which will become more gradual in the next phase of the war, despite Poland, the Baltics, and the Nordic EU states pressuring the big three for faster and tougher energy sanctions against Moscow.
The EU will undoubtedly continue to discuss tougher measures, but it is unlikely to act as quickly as it did on SWIFT, the coal ban, and the December partial oil embargo.
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This is not to say that additional sanctions are unlikely; the EU is still on track to reach the top of its sanctions ladder by the end of next year, which will include expanding the oil embargo and targeting Russian nuclear energy and gas exports. Additional measures, on the other hand, will now take longer and be more difficult to agree on.
Given this political reality, Brussels and EU capitals will instead focus on other forms of assistance to Ukraine for the rest of this year and next, including financial aid to meet the EU's pledge to make €9 billion available to Ukraine this year.
Why's this important?
This is important, as the Ukrainian state is on the verge of default and is dealing with a €5 billion per month financing gap, which Kiev fears will undermine the government's ability to sustain the war.
There will be no new EU common borrowing to support Ukraine or deal with the consequences of war in the EU, but Kiev will receive more assistance in the form of grants and loans.
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Military assistance will also be maintained. Discussions on Ukraine's integration into EU structures will also continue, following the European Council's decision in June to grant Kiev "candidate" status — something that could supposedly help Ukraine unlock more financing, anchor the country in the EU, and build momentum for alleged reforms in Kiev.
Despite the fact that membership negotiations are likely to take a long time, European countries believe that keeping Ukraine's EU prospects alive will "send a clear signal to Russia on the bloc's commitment to Ukraine," as well as help sponsor intra-EU cohesion and unity.
