France's National Rally to fall short of majority in elections: Polls
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Forecasts show that the far-right National Rally is not expected to secure the majority of seats needed to form a new French government.
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French far-right leader Marine Le Pen talks with National Rally group members at the National Assembly, February 6, 2023 in Paris, France. (AP)
The French far-right National Rally (RN) party will not gain an absolute majority in the upcoming snap elections, a recent poll by Harris Interactive predicted, which would force France to turn to a severely disintegrated National Assembly.
The Financial Times analyzed the polls and said that if the forecasts were manifested during the Sunday vote, then no party would have secured enough seats to form a government, which would send France into political turmoil.
According to the poll, RN is expected to secure 190 to 220 seats, which falls drastically short of the 289 needed for a majority to form government.
In second place comes the newly formed left-wing alliance, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), with 159 to 183 seats. Projections also show that French President Emmanuel Macron centrist Ensemble alliance expects 110 to 135 seats, which, according to FT, displays that the decision to conduct snap elections was wrong.
218 candidates withdrawn from elections
After the first-round vote, the RN's significant lead has prompted caution among analysts about predicting seat outcomes accurately. However, if the RN ends up with a weak result, it would indicate that the strategy of forming a "front républicain" against them, where center and left-wing parties strategically withdrew candidates, might have succeeded.
This tactic aims to shrink the RN's presence in the next National Assembly by narrowing the field in the run-offs, urging leftist and centrist voters to support other parties to prevent the RN from gaining power.
The number of three-way run-offs in the upcoming election has decreased significantly, from 306 to 89, according to data from the Ministry of Interior.
This comes after more candidates decided to withdraw from this weekend's run-off election in order to prevent the anti-RN vote from splitting, strengthening the opponents' efforts to block Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally from power in France on Tuesday.
The initial number of withdrawals was 200 candidates from the race for France's 577-seat national assembly, confirming that they would not run in the second round of voting on Sunday, according to local media estimates.
However, as of 5:50 pm on Tuesday, Le Monde announced 218 withdrawals, which include 130 from the left and 82 from the Macron camp and the center.
What is the predicament?
There is uncertainty whether voters will follow party instructions, especially with concerns over potential lower turnout due to summer holidays and voter frustration over eliminated candidates. For the RN, the challenge lies in maintaining voter mobilization as their chances of victory may diminish.
In this context, political deadlock and slow economic growth could diminish France’s attractiveness to foreign investors, who hold a substantial portion of the country’s government debt.
With a National Assembly potentially divided into three blocs, party leaders are hinting at cooperation. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal acknowledged centrists won't secure a majority but proposed forming a "pluralistic assembly" willing to collaborate on specific policies.
Green leader Marine Tondelier signaled openness to cooperation but emphasized it should align with the left's agenda rather than Macron or Attal's.
