Gaza death toll likely 40% higher than reported: Lancet
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A study released Thursday suggests the official Palestinian death toll in the Israeli war on Gaza may have undercounted casualties by 41% through mid-2024, due to the collapse of Gaza's healthcare system.
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Kareem al-Dabaji mourns his brother Anas al-Dabaji, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike that hit an apartment in Deir Al-Balah, at al-Aqsa Hospital morgue in Deir al-Balah, Gaza, on January 9, 2025. (AP)
A study released on Thursday suggests that the official Palestinian count of deaths in the Israeli war on Gaza may have missed as many as 41% of casualties through mid-2024 due to the collapse of Gaza's healthcare system.
Academics from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions conducted the peer-reviewed statistical analysis published in The Lancet journal.
The researchers employed a statistical technique known as capture-recapture analysis to estimate the death toll from the Israeli air and ground assault against Gaza during the first nine months of the war, spanning from October 2023 to the end of June 2024.
The researchers estimated that 64,260 people died from traumatic injuries during this period, which is approximately 41% higher than the official count from the Palestinian Health Ministry in Gaza.
The study indicated that 59.1% of the victims were women, children, and individuals over 65, but it did not offer an estimate of the number of Palestinian combatants among the deceased.
More than 46,000 people have been killed in the Israeli war on Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials.
'Numbers are higher than reported'
The Lancet study noted that the Gaza Health Ministry's ability to maintain accurate electronic death records had previously been reliable but declined during the Israeli war. This decline was attributed to strikes on hospitals and other healthcare facilities, as well as disruptions to digital communication systems.
Reports also indicated that many bodies were buried under the rubble of destroyed buildings, leading to their exclusion from certain casualty counts. To address these gaps, the Lancet study used a method commonly employed to assess deaths in other war zones, such as Kosovo and Sudan.
According to the study, by analyzing data from at least two independent sources, researchers were able to identify individuals who appeared on multiple casualty lists. Greater overlap between the lists indicates more accurate records, while less overlap suggests that many deaths have gone unreported.
According to the study, this information helps estimate the total number of fatalities.
For the Gaza study, researchers compared the official death toll from the Health Ministry, which initially relied solely on bodies brought to hospitals in the early months of the war. Over time, the count expanded to include data from an online survey distributed by the ministry to Palestinians both inside and outside Gaza.
The survey asked for information such as Palestinian ID numbers, names, age at death, gender, death location, and reporting source. Additionally, obituaries shared on social media were used as a data source.
"Our research reveals a stark reality: the true scale of traumatic injury deaths in Gaza is higher than reported," lead author Zeina Jamaluddine told Reuters.
