Harris won 60% undecided voters last month, campaign still flops: Poll

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: News Websites
19 Oct 2024 08:51

Although 60% of undecided voters have decided to give Harris their votes, her presidential campaign still appears to be crumbling, as multiple polls have indicated.

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Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at the Oakland Expo Center, in Oakland County, Mich., Friday, Oct. 18, 2024. (AP)

A recent poll revealed that Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris has won over 60% of undecided voters during the past month.

Conducted between October 14 and 16, an Emerson College poll indicated that undecided voters who chose who their votes would go for over the past week or month, 60% said they would vote for Harris, while only 36% said they would choose former President Donald Trump.

Among those voters, 57 percent supported Harris over the past month, compared to 41 percent for Trump. Among undecided voters who made their choice in the last week, 65 percent favored Harris, while 27 percent went with Trump.

However, voters who decided on their candidate more than a month ago leaned toward Trump, with 52 percent to 48 percent [for Harris].

For the most part, around 80% of voters decided who their chosen candidate would be months ago, and only 3% have not made up their minds yet.

Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling executive director, said that voters who are still prone to change their minds [48%] currently favor Harris, versus 43% for Trump.

Responding to the poll, Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung told Newsweek that Trump was actively outworking Kamala Harris, with voters acknowledging that America can't endure under Kamala's "destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community."

Newsweek considered that the poll could be a significant boost for Harris' campaign, which has been struggling with falling numbers in a tightening race.

Kamala walks a tightrope as campaign suffers: Polls

A Fox News poll conducted between October 11 and 14, involving 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, revealed Trump leading Harris by 2 points, with Trump at 50 percent and Harris at 48 percent. This represented a 4-point shift from September when Harris was ahead by 2 points.

Similarly, an ActiVote poll from early October indicated Trump had a 1.2-point national lead, reversing the situation from September when Harris had a 5.4-point advantage.

Additionally, it is worth noting that Trump has made gains in crucial swing states. An October 9 Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll indicated that the former President is leading in all seven swing states. Additionally, RealClearPolitics' tracker now suggests that, with no toss-up states, Trump is expected to win in every battleground state, particularly after Wisconsin shifted to Republican earlier this week.

As a result of his lead in these battleground states, the pollster now predicts that Trump will win the election with 312 Electoral College votes compared to Harris's 226.

However, FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver's predictions indicate that Harris is still leading and is expected to win in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, which would allow her to surpass the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory.

Harris needs 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to win, while Trump requires 51. However, FiveThirtyEight's tracker indicates that Harris's support is declining in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while Trump's has increased slightly in Arizona and Georgia. His lead in North Carolina has also narrowed from 0.7 to 0.5 points.

Nate Silver recently characterized the race as "razor-thin", highlighting a near tie in key Midwestern battlegrounds, making it a genuine 50/50 contest. Nationally, Harris leads Trump by 2.4 points according to FiveThirtyEight, and by 2.5 points per Silver's tracker. Yet, Silver's forecast gives Trump a 50.2 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris's 49.5 percent.

Half of Pennsylvania swing voters unsure about backing Harris

In the latest focus group conducted by Engagious/Sago, just six out of 12 Pennsylvania swing voters who supported Donald Trump in 2016 but switched to Joe Biden in 2020 are now fully committed to backing Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming election.

The remaining voters are split, with two planning to return to Trump and four leaning toward Harris but still undecided.

The swing voters expressed a range of reasons for their uncertainty. Some questioned Harris' leadership, while others cited lingering concerns about the economy under the current administration.

One voter noted, "I want to see how she handles things before making my decision."

While the majority of the group believes they will vote, many are grappling with mixed emotions about the candidates.

This focus group, though not statistically representative, offers insight into the challenges Harris may face in securing Pennsylvania, a key battleground state.

Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2020, and Harris will need to either retain or rebuild that coalition to claim victory.