War Secretary Pete Hegseth has repeatedly stated that the number and intensity of US attacks against Iran are steadily increasing. Speaking alongside Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine during multiple press briefings, Hegseth has alleged an expanding aggression with growing operational intensity.

On March 4, he said “more and larger waves” of strikes were ahead and emphasized that operations were “accelerating, not decelerating.” He also claimed that “Iran’s capabilities are evaporating by the hour.”

Subsequent statements reinforced this message. On March 10, Hegseth said the day would mark “yet again our most intense day of strikes,” while later remarks suggested that each successive day would bring the largest strike operations to date.

What CENTCOM data shows

However, data released by US Central Command (CENTCOM) does not clearly support the claim that strikes have increased steadily day by day.

Instead, the available figures indicate that strike activity has fluctuated over time. While early attacks saw a surge in activity, particularly on the first day, when more than 1,000 targets were reportedly struck, later data shows variations rather than consistent growth.

Between March 9 and March 12, the number of targets struck increased by roughly 1,000, averaging about 333 strikes per day. From March 12 to March 16, the average dropped to approximately 250 strikes per day.

CENTCOM has not released daily strike figures; instead providing updates every few days, which makes it difficult to track precise daily trends.

In essence: 

The peak of strikes occurred at the beginning of the offensive, with over 1,000 targets reportedly hit on the first day. A steep decline of almost 60% was recorded only 3 days into the war on Iran. 

• Between March 3 and March 6: approximately 433 strikes per day on average
• Between March 6 and March 9: approximately 666 strikes per day on average
• Between March 9 and March 12: approximately 333 strikes per day on average
• Between March 12 and March 16: approximately 250 strikes per day on average

 
How military experts mask the US' faltering strikes

Experts suggest that fluctuating strike numbers are not unusual in sustained military campaigns. Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, claimed that early stages of an operation often involve a surge in activity, followed by a more sustained pace.

He noted that aircraft and naval forces require maintenance, which can temporarily reduce strike frequency. This is reflected in reports such as the temporary withdrawal of the USS Gerald R. Ford for repairs after a massive fire "incident", which forced it to retreat. 

Another factor is target availability. Military planners often begin with a predefined list of targets developed over the years. Once these are addressed, identifying new targets depends on updated intelligence, which can slow or alter the pace of operations. Cancian estimated that the current aggression has likely settled into an average rate of below 1,000 strikes per day.

Messaging vs. battlefield reality

However, most importantly, the difference between official statements and available data highlights a broader issue of messaging versus operational reality.

Hegseth has described the campaign as overwhelmingly successful, claiming that Iran’s air defenses have been “flattened” and its military capabilities severely degraded. He has also alleged that Iran lacks functional air power and naval strength, a claim that has been disproven, given Iran's dominance in the Strait of Hormuz and its ongoing operations targeting key enemy assets across the Gulf and "Israel". 

Reports also indicated that a US F-35 fighter jet was directly hit by Iranian air defenses, marking an unprecedented occurrence, which raised questions and shattered Washington's claims of total air dominance. 

Therefore, the available data suggests that while US military operations against Iran remain active, the number of strikes has not increased in a steady, uninterrupted pattern as described in public statements.

#WATCH | #IRGC released footage capturing the moment a #US F-35 fighter jet was targeted in the skies over #Iran.#IranWar #WestAsia pic.twitter.com/lFDMNOrCeg

— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) March 19, 2026

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