'Israel' incapable of influencing US on Iran nuclear deal: Analysis

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Al Mayadeen + Israeli Media
8 Jun 2023 13:35

An analysis by Israeli expert Amir Tibon points out the dwindling influence of the Israeli government on US policy-makers and the White House in regard to continuous communications between the US and Iran aiming at reaching an understanding regarding the later's nuclear program.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a session of the Knesset, occupied Al-Quds, Palestine, December 28 2022. (Reuters)

"Israel" is concerned regarding recent understandings reached between Washington and Tehran on the Iranian nuclear agreement, an article by Israeli Amir Tibon published on Haaretz said.

Tibon says that the Israeli government fears, that the pressure tactics previously employed to influence US policy regarding the nuclear program are no longer relevant in its current advanced communications with the Iranian government.

The article claimed that it would be extremely difficult for "Israel" to rally genuine opposition in the US Congress against an agreement with Iran, and it would also find it unfeasible to alter the positions of European countries on the talks.

It was previously speculated that the process of reaching an understanding between the two countries remains in its early stages as the White House and the US State Department have not yet set up a timeline to finalize the deal. However, Haaretz revealed that discussions within Israeli inner circles have suggested that an understanding can be finalized in the upcoming weeks.

The piece highlighted events in 2015 when a settlement was agreed to despite Israeli attempts to obstruct the process or alter its content.

Tibon stressed that, at the time, Israeli efforts to rally support from European countries in a bid to edit the agreement for a more favorable one, went in vain. The Israeli expert related the events of 2015 to ongoing conversations between the US and Iran, saying that the probability of changing the content of the agreement has been significantly reduced since then.

The prevailing rhetoric among decision-makers, including those strongly opposed to an agreement, does not benefit from the exceptional position it had in Congress and in fact, the relationship with US lawmakers has worsened in recent years.

The report says that the "left-wing" faction in the Democratic Party has adopted a more critical approach toward the entity, speculating that the relationship might worsen with continued squabbles between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden.

Furthermore, worries regarding a possible quarrel between the two on the Iranian issue will push Biden's administration to adopt a less supportive approach to "Israel".

Europe is unwilling to support "Israel"

In the European arena, Israeli officials believe that the ongoing developments will not lead to significant hardening of the positions of Germany, France, and Britain regarding talks with Tehran. The current level of solidarity with "Israel" is far from causing a fracture in the collective Western stance on reaching an agreement with Iran.

According to the article, anxieties over a potential collapse of the negotiations and the escalation into a military confrontation with Iran has a severe impact on Europe. A high-ranking Western diplomat said to Haaretz that this scenario is the nightmare that Europe is currently unprepared to even contemplate.

The diplomat emphasized that a war with Iran would harm Western unity against Russia, which is presently the top priority for Europe. Therefore, even those who strongly oppose certain concessions to be made by the United States will have to acquiesce to Biden.

In the Arab world, "Israel" attempted to exert additional pressure on Iran by allying itself with Gulf countries. Netanyahu has often stated in media interviews and briefings that Arab leaders in the Gulf align with his firm stance against the Iran agreement, even if they refrain from publicly stating so.

However, the situation has taken a different turn today, as communication with Iran coincides with a trend of Arab rapprochement with Tehran, exemplified by the recent opening of a new Saudi embassy in Tehran.

Currently, according to Haaretz garnering significant Arab support against the potential new agreement, if they indeed materialize in the coming weeks, would prove challenging.

It is worth noting that relations between Iran and Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan have witnessed tangible progress recently. Israeli media has highlighted that the regime that is more prone to change the region is "Israel", rather than Iran.