A comprehensive initiative to route trade between Europe and Asia through the Middle East faces the threat of coming to a halt before it can commence, as per a new analysis by Bloomberg.

The ongoing Israeli aggression on Gaza has brought a halt to advancements in the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a project promoted by Washington and its key allies last year. The initiative, which involves constructing new rail links across the Arabian Peninsula, is currently on hold due to disruptions caused by the US-UK aggressions on Yemen, the Yemeni Armed Forces operations in the Red Sea in support of Gaza, and escalating turmoil in the region.

It poses a setback for US strategy, as the plan had various objectives, including countering China's Belt and Road infrastructure program, expanding influence in the Global South, and accelerating the anticipated normalization ties between "Israel" and Saudi Arabia, as per the analysis.

“This is a project that made Iran, China, Russia, even Turkey nervous,” said Romana Vlahutin, the former European Union special envoy for connectivity who’s now a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund, as quoted by Bloomberg. “Maybe that is the best proof of its strategic importance.”

When questioned about the schedule for the project, an individual familiar with the plans stated that the eruption of the Israeli war in the Middle East has shifted focus away from deliberations on IMEC.
 
In the competition with China for global influence, both the US and Europe have faced challenges in gaining support in the developing world. Numerous emerging nations adopted a neutral stance during the war on Ukraine and advocated for an immediate cessation of Israeli aggression on Gaza, diverging from the American position in both instances.
 
To enhance their influence, Group of Seven (G7) countries are involved in what some describe as a competition of proposals, offering concrete infrastructure projects instead of relying on appeals to shared values.
 
IMEC was among the most ambitious initiatives, solidified at the September Group of 20 summit through an unexpected collaboration involving US President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a three-way handshake.

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That's the perspective of Bloomberg's Michelle Jamrisko and Alberto Nardelli.

The revelation surprised many, with its focal point being a new railway connection integrated with established maritime and truck transportation networks, which Biden hailed as a "game-changing regional investment."
 
Analysts also viewed the initiative as a move toward the administration's ultimate objective: a pact between "Israel" and Saudi Arabia.

Joe Biden's fading memory

During a recent Davos meeting, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan outlined the US strategy, which aimed at achieving a comprehensive deal involving normalization between "Israel" and key Arab states, along with a political framework for Palestinians. Sullivan emphasized that this was the goal before the events of October 7.

The Israeli ongoing genocide in Gaza is posing a risk of a full-blown war in the region.

The ongoing chaos has led to a sudden halt in the progress of IMEC. The 3,000-mile route traverses nations that are currently on high alert due to the risk of being drawn into the war. The public outcry in Arab nations over the civilian casualties in Gaza necessitates cautious navigation for governments involved in IMEC, such as the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia is adamant about not engaging in any agreement with "Israel" unless there is a clear path to "establishing a Palestinian state." However, even without the Middle East war, IMEC, a project that aligned with US geopolitical rhetoric but lacked detailed plans, might have faced challenges.

“While IMEC certainly looked promising on paper, complex regional dynamics were always going to pose implementation challenges,” said Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank, to Bloomberg.

Those who signed the agreement last September are eager to revive the deal if regional tensions subside.
 
Biden is preparing for a likely November election rematch against Donald Trump. Given both US parties' strong stance against China, the Biden administration aims to distinguish its foreign policy by emphasizing collaboration with allies on multilateral projects. The architects of the IMEC plan recognize the urgency of such efforts amid rapid shifts in the global order led by the US since World War II.
 
“Washington is seriously struggling to counter China’s grand economic vision,” Singleton said. “The collapse of IMEC is a stark reminder that grand strategic plans often stumble in the face of harsh geopolitical realities.”