'Israel's' dreams crushed as Saudi-Iran deal exhibits regional loss
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Regional strategy-wise, even if the occupation were to strike Iran, they wouldn't have access to Saudi airspace or Saudi military facilities - another dream crushed.
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a weekly Cabinet meeting on January 6, 2023 (Reuters)
The Israeli occupation's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dreamt of bringing Saudi Arabia into the so-called "Abraham Accords", being an important foreign policy goal. But Saudi Arabia's landmark agreement and restoration of diplomatic relations with Iran have cut that dream short - catching Netanyahu off guard and not ready to face what will be his dream's demise.
Ferial Saeed, a former senior American diplomat, told Responsible Statecraft, “The Israelis see [the Saudi-Iranian diplomatic agreement] as a major strategic setback. Iran is their primary security challenge, a powerful adversary with long tentacles across the Middle East,” adding, “They thought they were building a strong anti-Iran coalition in the region, and now Iran’s other main rival and the most powerful Arab state, lynchpin of any regional alliance to counter Tehran, is shaking hands with Iran before normalizing with Israel.”
Saeed noted that the negative reaction by the occupation shows a strong contradiction as opposed to the rest of the region's welcoming reaction and thus "worsens Israel’s position in the region.”
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Dr. Nader Hashemi, the director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International Studies, explained during an interview for Responsible Statecraft how the agreement is regarded by the occupation as an exaggeration "rooted in hubris and arrogance that often goes with political power.”
However, Saudi Arabia will proceed to view the occupation as a "regional power" that will continue to frame Iran as a "threat" to the Gulf, according to Gordon Gray, the former US Ambassador to Tunisia. “At the same time, Saudi Arabia is likely to continue its low visibility cooperation with Israel.”
Dr. Hashemi seconds that view, stating, “There is a common and similar reading of the future of the region and the current security challenges more than there is any sort of agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The fundamental tensions and differences in values and worldview between Saudi Arabia and Iran with respect to their view of the region still remain in place.”
"Israel" can't even keep face
Can Saudi Arabia keep ties with "Israel" amid the Saudi-Iran deal?
Saeed clarifies that “it all depends on how much Iran reins in proxies that threaten Saudi security," adding, "Unleashing them is a lot easier than putting them back in the bottle," says Saeed. He further stated that if Saudi Arabia foresees “meaningful improvement” from Iran, it would provoke the Saudis to be "more cautious and choosy in where and how they cooperate with Israel to counter Iran.”
Regional strategy-wise, even if the occupation were to strike Iran, they wouldn't have access to Saudi airspace or Saudi military facilities, which is another dream crushed.
With all that said, tension still remains as Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, maintain the fear of backlash if Iran were to be struck or attacked. As per the Responsible Statecraft, the Saudi leadership is keen on making sure that if the red line is crossed with Iran on one side and the US and "Israel" on the other, Saudi Arabia will not be targeted by Iran.
Fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, Dr. Aziz Alghashian, demonstrated the difference between the strategy that Saudi Arabia and "Israel" approach to matters concerning Iran and what both parties regard as a major threat. “Iranian influence is a broad concept which I believe Saudi and Israel believe in, but antagonizing Iran is where Saudi and Israel diverge fundamentally.”
As Saudi-Iran cooperation furthers and develops, it is not only critical but urgent for the region to see how the occupation - amid the internal turmoil it is tackling - will handle these developments.
